Latest Opinion Poll for Berlin Election (Institut Wahlkreisprognose, August 24, 2021)

August 23, 2021 - August 24, 2021

1050 respondents

Next General election in Berlin: September 20, 2026

The next General election in Berlin takes place in 197 days.

Berlin's Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Institut Wahlkreisprognose projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 43.8% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut Wahlkreisprognose?

In the latest opinion poll for the Berlin election, conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose on August 24, 2021, SPD emerges as the frontrunner with 24.5%. Trailing are Grüne: 15.5%, CDU: 15%, Die Linke: 15%, AfD: 11% and FDP: 9.5%. Other parties secure 9.5% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut Wahlkreisprognose Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

130
Majority requires 66 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Berlin election is 5%.

CDU + Grüne + SPD
Centre-Left
56.9%
Die Linke + Grüne + SPD
Left
51.5%
CDU + Die Linke + BSW
Centre
50.8%
CDU + AfD + BSW
Right
48.5%
CDU + Grüne + BSW
Centre
47.7%
CDU + Die Linke
Centre
45.4%
CDU + SPD + BSW
Centre-Right
45.4%
CDU + AfD
Right
43.1%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Civey)

According to Civey data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Berlin parliament: CDU with 33 representatives, Die Linke with 26 representatives, AfD with 23 representatives, Grüne with 22 representatives, SPD with 19 representatives and BSW with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Berlin

Berlin's House of Representatives (Abgeordnetenhaus) elections utilize a personalized proportional representation system. Following the irregularities of the 2021 botched election and the subsequent 2023 repeat election, electoral organization faces intense scrutiny. The system involves first votes for direct constituency candidates and second votes for party lists at the district or state level, supplemented by compensatory seats to maintain overall proportionality.

Electoral Thresholds

Berlin enforces a five-percent electoral threshold, but with a critical basic mandate clause: a party securing at least one direct mandate gains entry to the Abgeordnetenhaus, its representation then reflecting its full second-vote share. In a city characterized by numerous fiercely contested neighborhoods (Kieze), this provision offers a vital safeguard for smaller parties with strong local bases.

Government Formation and Traditions

Berlin has earned a reputation as a laboratory for coalition governments. The city has experimented with a wide array of alliances, from Red-Red-Green (SPD-Left-Greens) to the current Grand Coalition (CDU-SPD). The metropolis's inherent political fragmentation frequently mandates protracted negotiations to unify the diverse interests of its varied districts and social milieus within the Senate.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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