Polls, trends and elections for Berlin

In the current election trend in Berlin, CDU leads with 29% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).

Bündnis 90/Die Grünen experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 17% (-1.4).

SPD experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 16% (-2.4).

AfD lands at 13% and gains +3.9 percentage points since the last election.

Die Linke experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 10% (-2.2).

FDP (4%) fail to meet the percentage threshold and could not enter parliament.

11% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from INSA for BILD, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 1000 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

If there were an election this Sunday in Berlin, the government from CDU and SPD would secure 52.9% of the virtual seats. The government could thus remain in office.

In the current election trend, 5 parties could enter parliament: CDU, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, SPD, AfD and Die Linke reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 63% - 37% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

The latest poll for the election in Berlin was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 29%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 17%, SPD 16%, AfD 13%, Die Linke 10% and FDP 4%.

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from CDU and Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Coalition from CDU and SPD and Coalition from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, SPD and Die Linke each achieve a majority in parliament.

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Berlin shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Berlin in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Berlin took place on 12.02.2023.

In the parliament of Berlin, there are 159 representatives from 5 parties. 86 representatives are part of the government from CDU and SPD. The opposition from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Die Linke and AfD has 73 representatives.

90 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 69 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Franziska Giffey governs in Berlin with a coalition of CDU and SPD.

The next election in Berlin is expected to take place in the year 2028.

The head of state of Berlin is Franziska Giffey.

Franziska Giffey governs in Berlin with a coalition of CDU and SPD.

The latest poll for the election in Berlin was published by INSA. The parties achieve the following values: CDU 29%, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen 17%, SPD 16%, AfD 13%, Die Linke 10% and FDP 4%.

In the parliament of Berlin, there are 159 representatives from 5 parties. 86 representatives are part of the government from CDU and SPD. The opposition from Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, Die Linke and AfD has 73 representatives.