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Latest Opinion Poll for the Brandenburg Election (Infratest dimap, April 25, 2022)

April 21, 2022 - April 25, 2022

1182 respondents

Next General Election in Brandenburg: 2029

The next General Election in Brandenburg is expected in 2029.

Brandenburg's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 53.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

According to the latest national poll in Brandenburg by Infratest dimap, SPD leads with 30%, trailed by AfD: 19%, CDU: 18%, Grüne: 10%, Die Linke: 7%, FDP: 6%, BVB/FW: 4% and Tierschutzpartei: 3%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Brandenburg
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Brandenburg
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

84

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 84 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Brandenburg state election is 5%.

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to Infratest dimap data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Brandenburg parliament: SPD with 29 representatives, AfD with 18 representatives, CDU with 18 representatives, Grüne with 10 representatives, Die Linke with 7 representatives and FDP with 6 representatives.

The Electoral System in Brandenburg

Brandenburg employs a personalized proportional representation system for its elections. The Landtag, the state parliament, comprises at least 88 members. A distinctive feature is the Sainte-Laguë method for seat allocation, which ensures smaller parties are not disadvantaged in the distribution of mandates. The allocation of overhang and leveling seats guarantees the Landtag accurately reflects the voters' will.

Electoral Thresholds

Brandenburg applies a five-percent electoral threshold, augmented by a robust basic mandate clause: securing just one direct mandate is sufficient to bypass this barrier. Furthermore, parties representing the Sorbian/Wendish minority are exempt from the five-percent hurdle, a crucial element of minority protection enshrined in the state constitution.

Government Formation and Traditions

For an extended period, Brandenburg's government was led by the SPD in various coalition configurations. The current political landscape is significantly shaped by the strength of the AfD and the emergence of new forces like the BSW. This often necessitates broad 'centrist alliances' (such as Kenya coalitions) to form a government and counter extremist parties, complicating the daily process of compromise within these coalitions.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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