Latest Opinion Poll for the Brandenburg Election (Infratest dimap, September 26, 2022)

September 22, 2022 - September 26, 2022

1165 respondents

Next General election in Brandenburg: 2029

The next General election in Brandenburg is expected in 2029.

Brandenburg's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 28.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

In the latest opinion poll for the Brandenburg state election, conducted by Infratest dimap on September 26, 2022, AfD leads with 24%. Trailing behind are SPD: 24%, CDU: 18%, Grüne: 11%, Die Linke: 9%, BVB/FW: 4% and FDP: 4%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

85

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 85 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

88
Majority requires 45 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Brandenburg state election is 5%.

SPD + CDU + Grüne
Centre-Left
56.8%
SPD + Die Linke + Grüne
Left
53.4%
SPD + CDU + FDP
Centre
47.7%
AfD + CDU + FDP
Right
46.6%
SPD + Grüne + FDP
Left
43.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Forschungsgruppe Wahlen)

According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Brandenburg parliament: SPD with 20 representatives, AfD with 19 representatives, CDU with 17 representatives, Die Linke with 14 representatives, Grüne with 13 representatives and FDP with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Brandenburg

Brandenburg employs a personalized proportional representation system for its elections. The Landtag, the state parliament, comprises at least 88 members. A distinctive feature is the Sainte-Laguë method for seat allocation, which ensures smaller parties are not disadvantaged in the distribution of mandates. The allocation of overhang and leveling seats guarantees the Landtag accurately reflects the voters' will.

Electoral Thresholds

Brandenburg applies a five-percent electoral threshold, augmented by a robust basic mandate clause: securing just one direct mandate is sufficient to bypass this barrier. Furthermore, parties representing the Sorbian/Wendish minority are exempt from the five-percent hurdle, a crucial element of minority protection enshrined in the state constitution.

Government Formation and Traditions

For an extended period, Brandenburg's government was led by the SPD in various coalition configurations. The current political landscape is significantly shaped by the strength of the AfD and the emergence of new forces like the BSW. This often necessitates broad 'centrist alliances' (such as Kenya coalitions) to form a government and counter extremist parties, complicating the daily process of compromise within these coalitions.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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