Latest Opinion Poll for the Brandenburg Election (Infratest dimap, September 4, 2024)

September 3, 2024 - September 4, 2024

1207 respondents

Next General election in Brandenburg: 2029

The next General election in Brandenburg is expected in 2029.

Brandenburg's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Infratest dimap projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 43.2% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Infratest dimap?

In the latest opinion poll for the Brandenburg state election, conducted by Infratest dimap on September 4, 2024, AfD leads with 27%. Trailing behind are SPD: 23%, CDU: 18%, BSW: 15%, Grüne: 5%, Die Linke: 4% and BVB/FW: 3%. Other parties secure 5% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Brandenburg
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Brandenburg

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Infratest dimap Projection?

85

PolitPro Score

Infratest dimap achieved a PolitPro Score of 85 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, Infratest dimap's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Infratest dimap at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
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Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

88
Majority requires 45 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Brandenburg state election is 5%.

SPD + CDU + BSW
Centre
63.6%
SPD + CDU + Grüne
Centre
52.3%
AfD + CDU
Right
51.1%
SPD + BSW + Grüne
Centre
48.9%
AfD + BSW
Right
47.7%
SPD + CDU
Centre
46.6%
SPD + BSW
Centre
43.2%
CDU + BSW + Grüne
Centre-Right
43.2%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Infratest dimap)

According to Infratest dimap data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Brandenburg parliament: AfD with 27 representatives, SPD with 23 representatives, CDU with 18 representatives, BSW with 15 representatives and Grüne with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Brandenburg

Brandenburg employs a personalized proportional representation system for its elections. The Landtag, the state parliament, comprises at least 88 members. A distinctive feature is the Sainte-Laguë method for seat allocation, which ensures smaller parties are not disadvantaged in the distribution of mandates. The allocation of overhang and leveling seats guarantees the Landtag accurately reflects the voters' will.

Electoral Thresholds

Brandenburg applies a five-percent electoral threshold, augmented by a robust basic mandate clause: securing just one direct mandate is sufficient to bypass this barrier. Furthermore, parties representing the Sorbian/Wendish minority are exempt from the five-percent hurdle, a crucial element of minority protection enshrined in the state constitution.

Government Formation and Traditions

For an extended period, Brandenburg's government was led by the SPD in various coalition configurations. The current political landscape is significantly shaped by the strength of the AfD and the emergence of new forces like the BSW. This often necessitates broad 'centrist alliances' (such as Kenya coalitions) to form a government and counter extremist parties, complicating the daily process of compromise within these coalitions.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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