Latest Opinion Poll for the Brandenburg Election (INSA, May 21, 2024)

May 13, 2024 - May 21, 2024

1000 respondents

Next General election in Brandenburg: 2029

The next General election in Brandenburg is expected in 2029.

Brandenburg's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 34.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

In the latest opinion poll for the Brandenburg state election, conducted by INSA on May 21, 2024, AfD leads with 25%. Trailing behind are CDU: 19%, SPD: 19%, BSW: 13%, Grüne: 7%, Die Linke: 6%, BVB/FW: 5% and FDP: 3%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Brandenburg
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Brandenburg

Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

83

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 83 out of 100.

1.5

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.5 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

88
Majority requires 45 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Brandenburg state election is 5%.

AfD + CDU + BSW
Right
60.2%
CDU + SPD + BSW
Centre-Right
54.5%
CDU + SPD + Grüne + Die Linke
Centre-Left
54.5%
CDU + SPD + Grüne + BVB/FW
Centre
53.4%
AfD + CDU + BVB/FW
Right
52.3%
CDU + SPD + Grüne
Centre
47.7%
AfD + CDU
Right
46.6%
AfD + BSW + Die Linke
Right
46.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA data, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Brandenburg parliament: AfD with 23 representatives, CDU with 18 representatives, SPD with 18 representatives, BSW with 12 representatives, Grüne with 6 representatives, Die Linke with 6 representatives and BVB/FW with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Brandenburg

Brandenburg employs a personalized proportional representation system for its elections. The Landtag, the state parliament, comprises at least 88 members. A distinctive feature is the Sainte-Laguë method for seat allocation, which ensures smaller parties are not disadvantaged in the distribution of mandates. The allocation of overhang and leveling seats guarantees the Landtag accurately reflects the voters' will.

Electoral Thresholds

Brandenburg applies a five-percent electoral threshold, augmented by a robust basic mandate clause: securing just one direct mandate is sufficient to bypass this barrier. Furthermore, parties representing the Sorbian/Wendish minority are exempt from the five-percent hurdle, a crucial element of minority protection enshrined in the state constitution.

Government Formation and Traditions

For an extended period, Brandenburg's government was led by the SPD in various coalition configurations. The current political landscape is significantly shaped by the strength of the AfD and the emergence of new forces like the BSW. This often necessitates broad 'centrist alliances' (such as Kenya coalitions) to form a government and counter extremist parties, complicating the daily process of compromise within these coalitions.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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