Prefer an ad-free experience? Get PolitPro+ now.

Latest Opinion Poll for the Brandenburg Election (INSA, July 15, 2024)

July 8, 2024 - July 15, 2024

1000 respondents

Next General Election in Brandenburg: 2029

The next General Election in Brandenburg is expected in 2029.

Brandenburg's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the INSA projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 40.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from INSA?

According to the latest national poll in Brandenburg by INSA, AfD leads with 24%, trailed by SPD: 19%, CDU: 18%, BSW: 17%, Grüne: 7%, Die Linke: 5%, BVB/FW: 4% and FDP: 3%. Other parties secure 3% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Brandenburg
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Brandenburg
Prefer an ad-free experience? Get PolitPro+ now.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the INSA Projection?

83

PolitPro Score

INSA achieved a PolitPro Score of 83 out of 100.

1.6

Election Accuracy

On average, INSA's figures deviate by 1.6 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

INSA at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Brandenburg state election is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • AfD
    ??%
  • SPD
    ??%
  • CDU
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • AfD
    ??%
  • SPD
    ??%
  • CDU
    ??%
  • BSW
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • BSW
    ??%
  • Grüne
    ??%
  • Linke
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: INSA)

According to INSA data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Brandenburg parliament: AfD with 23 representatives, SPD with 18 representatives, CDU with 18 representatives, BSW with 17 representatives, Grüne with 7 representatives and Die Linke with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Brandenburg

Brandenburg employs a personalized proportional representation system for its elections. The Landtag, the state parliament, comprises at least 88 members. A distinctive feature is the Sainte-Laguë method for seat allocation, which ensures smaller parties are not disadvantaged in the distribution of mandates. The allocation of overhang and leveling seats guarantees the Landtag accurately reflects the voters' will.

Electoral Thresholds

Brandenburg applies a five-percent electoral threshold, augmented by a robust basic mandate clause: securing just one direct mandate is sufficient to bypass this barrier. Furthermore, parties representing the Sorbian/Wendish minority are exempt from the five-percent hurdle, a crucial element of minority protection enshrined in the state constitution.

Government Formation and Traditions

For an extended period, Brandenburg's government was led by the SPD in various coalition configurations. The current political landscape is significantly shaped by the strength of the AfD and the emergence of new forces like the BSW. This often necessitates broad 'centrist alliances' (such as Kenya coalitions) to form a government and counter extremist parties, complicating the daily process of compromise within these coalitions.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

Help Us Stay Independent

Your support helps shield PolitPro from the influence of lobbyists and political parties.

Give Feedback

Tell us how we can make PolitPro even better for you!

Found a Mistake?

Political data is constantly evolving. If you spot an error, please let us know. A brief reference to your source will help us verify and update the information.