Latest Opinion Poll for the Brandenburg Election (Institut Wahlkreisprognose, September 21, 2024)

September 17, 2024 - September 21, 2024

982 respondents

Next General election in Brandenburg: 2029

The next General election in Brandenburg is expected in 2029.

Brandenburg Government Majority Currently Uncertain

Based on the Institut Wahlkreisprognose projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 50.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Institut Wahlkreisprognose?

In the latest opinion poll for the Brandenburg state election, conducted by Institut Wahlkreisprognose on September 21, 2024, SPD leads with 28%. Trailing behind are AfD: 27%, CDU: 13.5%, BSW: 12.5%, BVB/FW: 4.5%, Grüne: 4%, Die Linke: 3.5% and FDP: 0.5%. Other parties secure 6.5% of the votes.

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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Institut Wahlkreisprognose Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

Institut Wahlkreisprognose achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Institut Wahlkreisprognose's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

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Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

88
Majority requires 45 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Brandenburg state election is 5%.

AfD + CDU + BSW
Right
56.8%
SPD + CDU + Grüne + BVB/FW
Centre-Left
54.5%
SPD + CDU + Grüne + Die Linke
Centre-Left
54.5%
AfD + CDU + BVB/FW
Right
52.3%
SPD + CDU + BSW
Centre
51.1%
SPD + CDU + Grüne
Centre-Left
48.9%
AfD + CDU
Right
46.6%
SPD + CDU + BVB/FW
Centre
46.6%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Institut Wahlkreisprognose)

According to Institut Wahlkreisprognose data, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Brandenburg parliament: AfD with 26 representatives, SPD with 21 representatives, CDU with 15 representatives, BSW with 9 representatives, Grüne with 7 representatives, BVB/FW with 5 representatives and Die Linke with 5 representatives.

The Electoral System in Brandenburg

Brandenburg employs a personalized proportional representation system for its elections. The Landtag, the state parliament, comprises at least 88 members. A distinctive feature is the Sainte-Laguë method for seat allocation, which ensures smaller parties are not disadvantaged in the distribution of mandates. The allocation of overhang and leveling seats guarantees the Landtag accurately reflects the voters' will.

Electoral Thresholds

Brandenburg applies a five-percent electoral threshold, augmented by a robust basic mandate clause: securing just one direct mandate is sufficient to bypass this barrier. Furthermore, parties representing the Sorbian/Wendish minority are exempt from the five-percent hurdle, a crucial element of minority protection enshrined in the state constitution.

Government Formation and Traditions

For an extended period, Brandenburg's government was led by the SPD in various coalition configurations. The current political landscape is significantly shaped by the strength of the AfD and the emergence of new forces like the BSW. This often necessitates broad 'centrist alliances' (such as Kenya coalitions) to form a government and counter extremist parties, complicating the daily process of compromise within these coalitions.

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Data Sources and Methodology

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