Bulgaria: Polls and trends for the Bulgarian election 2027

In the current election trend in Bulgaria, GERB leads with 26.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).

PP/DB experiences slight losses compared to the last election and lands at 19% (-4.5).

Vŭzrazhdane reaches 12.6% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-1.0 percentage points).

DPS reaches 12.2% and thus maintains the level of the last election (-1.0 percentage points).

BSP lands at 9.7% and gains +1.1 percentage points since the last election.

ITN reaches 4.7% and thus maintains the level of the last election (+0.8 percentage points).

15.6% would vote for another small party in current polls (Other).

For the election trend, polls from various polling institutes from the last 3 months were analyzed. These include polls from Market LINKS, Alpha Research, Gallup and Trend, for example. The latest poll from each institute was considered, and then, taking into account various factors, it was recalculated into a weighted average. The election trend is therefore more robust against outliers from individual institutes and provides a quick overview of the political mood in the country.

Therefore, the will of at least 3872 individuals was considered in the polls of the election trend. Election polls are not predictions of the election outcome but reflect the current mood during the respective poll period.

Representative polls are subject to statistical fluctuations and have a margin of error of 1.5 to 3 percentage points. Some polling institutes only mention small parties with a value of 3% or higher. PolitPro does not conduct its own polls and therefore has no more detailed information about small parties. To calculate reliable values, parties are only considered in the election trend if they are explicitly listed in at least half of all polls.

Polls are usually a projection. This means that the raw data is modified by the institutes based on various criteria to come as close as possible to the possible outcome of an election. However, the exact calculation methods of the polling institutes are not publicly known.

If there were an election this Sunday in Bulgaria, the government from GERB would secure 31% of the virtual seats. The government could thus not remain in office.

In the current election trend, 6 parties could enter parliament: GERB, PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane, DPS, BSP and ITN reach the necessary percentages to surpass the parliamentary threshold.

To calculate virtual seats, all parties in the election trend that achieve sufficient votes to surpass the parliamentary threshold are considered. Since polls only determine the voting intentions of parties, compensation and overhang mandates cannot be taken into account.

When presenting election polls and results, non-voters are not considered: the votes cast for a party are calculated in relation to the number of valid second votes cast. Non-voters as well as invalid votes (including blank votes) are ignored. For comparison: In the last election, the voter turnout was 0% - 100% of the eligible population were non-voters or cast invalid votes.

To make parties comparable across borders and provide a quick overview of political events, we show the rough political orientation of parties. These are rough categorizations and can never capture all the positions of the parties. The respective election programs of the parties provide a complete overview of their positions.

The latest poll for the election in Bulgaria was published by Market LINKS. The parties achieve the following values: GERB 25.5%, PP/DB 17.1%, DPS 11.8%, Vŭzrazhdane 10.3%, BSP 8.7% and ITN 3.9%.

In current election polls, various coalitions would be possible: Coalition from GERB, Vŭzrazhdane and DPS, Coalition from GERB, DPS and BSP, Coalition from PP/DB, DPS, BSP and ITN, Coalition from GERB and PP/DB, Coalition from PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane and DPS, Coalition from GERB, Vŭzrazhdane and ITN and Coalition from GERB, DPS and ITN each achieve a majority in parliament.

The overview of possible coalitions for the election in Bulgaria shows the main coalition possibilities. The coalitions are calculated based on the virtual seats of the election trend. Only parties that surpass the percentage threshold with their votes are considered. A complete overview of coalition possibilities can be found through the link below.

The number on the right indicates how many percent of the virtual seats a coalition would reach. From 50% of the votes, a coalition has realistic chances of forming the government. The icon above a bar on the right indicates the political orientation of a coalition (Left, right, center).

The line chart provides an overview of the development of the election trend in Bulgaria in recent years. For this, the current election trend is recorded as a data point every Sunday and added to the chart. The course of the poll values can reveal short-term and long-term trends in polls and election polls. The last election in Bulgaria took place on 02.04.2023.

In the parliament of Bulgaria, there are 240 representatives from 6 parties. 69 representatives are part of the government from GERB. The opposition from PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane, DPS, BSP and ITN has 171 representatives.

23 of the representatives are politically more left-leaning, while 170 representatives are politically more right-leaning.

Galab Donev governs in Bulgaria with a coalition of GERB. The head of state is Rumen Radev.

The next election in Bulgaria is expected to take place in the year 2027.

The head of state of Bulgaria is Rumen Radev.

Galab Donev governs in Bulgaria with a coalition of GERB.

The electoral threshold in Bulgaria is 4%.

The latest poll for the election in Bulgaria was published by Market LINKS. The parties achieve the following values: GERB 25.5%, PP/DB 17.1%, DPS 11.8%, Vŭzrazhdane 10.3%, BSP 8.7% and ITN 3.9%.

In the parliament of Bulgaria, there are 240 representatives from 6 parties. 69 representatives are part of the government from GERB. The opposition from PP/DB, Vŭzrazhdane, DPS, BSP and ITN has 171 representatives.