Latest voting intention survey by Exacta for Bulgaria
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Bulgaria conducted by Exacta, the parties received the following results: GERB 26.7%, PP/DB 14.6%, Vŭzrazhdane 14.3%, APS 8.1%, BSP 7.5%, DPS-NN 7.3%, ITN 6%, MECh 3.7%, SB 2.8% and Velichie 2.7%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1050 people during the period 22.10.2024 - 22.10.2024.
1050 participants
22.10.2024 - 22.10.2024
Exacta
Development since the last election on 27.10.2024
Seats in parliament
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
21
8.9%
APS
23
9.6%
DPS-NN
20
8.6%
ITN
17
7.1%
GERB
76
31.6%
PP/DB
42
17.3%
V
41
16.9%
GERB + PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane
GERB + PP/DB + APS
GERB + APS + BSP + DPS-NN
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + DPS-NN
GERB + APS + BSP + ITN
GERB + APS + DPS-NN + ITN
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
GERB + BSP + DPS-NN + ITN
PP/DB + APS + BSP + DPS-NN + ITN
GERB + APS + BSP
GERB + APS + DPS-NN
GERB + PP/DB
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Exacta pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.6 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.