Latest voting intention survey by Gallup for Bulgaria
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Bulgaria conducted by Gallup, the parties received the following results: GERB 25.7%, PP/DB 16.6%, Vŭzrazhdane 15.4%, APS 8.3%, BSP 7.1%, DPS-NN 6.9%, ITN 6.3%, MECh 3.7% and SB 1.1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 806 people during the period 06.10.2024 - 06.10.2024.
806 participants
28.09.2024 - 06.10.2024
Gallup
Development since the last election on 27.10.2024
Seats in parliament
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
20
8.3%
APS
23
9.6%
DPS-NN
19
7.9%
ITN
17
7.1%
GERB
72
30%
PP/DB
46
19.2%
V
43
17.9%
GERB + PP/DB + Vŭzrazhdane
GERB + PP/DB + APS
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + DPS-NN
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
GERB + APS + BSP + DPS-NN
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
GERB + APS + BSP + ITN
GERB + APS + DPS-NN + ITN
GERB + BSP + DPS-NN + ITN
PP/DB + APS + BSP + DPS-NN + ITN
GERB + PP/DB
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.6
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Gallup pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.6 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
3.39
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 2/6 |
|
1.78
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 2/3 |
|
2.59
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 2/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.