Latest voting intention survey by Mediana for Bulgaria
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Bulgaria conducted by Mediana, the parties received the following results: GERB 24.5%, Vŭzrazhdane 13.7%, PP/DB 12.1%, BSP 8.8%, APS 8.7%, ITN 7%, DPS-NN 5%, SB 3% and MECh 2.4%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 978 people during the period 13.09.2024 - 13.09.2024.
978 participants
08.09.2024 - 13.09.2024
Mediana
Development since the last election on 27.10.2024
GERB
24.5
-3.0
V
13.7
-2.0
PP/DB
12.1
-1.6
BSP
8.8
-0.2
APS
8.7
+8.7
ITN
7.0
+0.8
DPS-NN
5.0
+5.0
SB
3.0
-0.1
MECh
2.4
+2.4
Others
14.8
-10.0
This poll is more than 3 months old.
Seats in parliament
240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
26
10.8%
APS
26
10.8%
DPS-NN
15
6.3%
ITN
21
8.8%
GERB
74
30.8%
PP/DB
37
15.4%
V
41
17.1%
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + PP/DB
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
GERB + PP/DB + APS
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane + ITN
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
GERB + BSP + APS
GERB + PP/DB + DPS-NN
PP/DB + BSP + APS + ITN + DPS-NN
GERB + BSP + ITN
GERB + APS + ITN
35
PolitPro Score
Mediana achieves a score of 35/100 in the PolitPro Score.
What is the PolitPro Score?
The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
3.4
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Mediana pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.4 percentage points.
Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
3.77
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 5/6 |
|
2.93
|
Parliamentary Election in Bulgarien 2021 | 4/6 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.