Bulgaria Election Poll: Results from Market LINKS on September 3, 2022

According to Market LINKS data, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Bulgaria's parliament: GERB with 73 representatives, PP with 59 representatives, DPS with 31 representatives, Vŭzrazhdane with 31 representatives, BSP with 25 representatives and DB with 21 representatives.

The Bulgarian National Assembly (Narodno Sabranie) comprises 240 members, elected for a four-year term. Its electoral system employs proportional representation with closed lists across 31 multi-member constituencies. Since 2021, Bulgaria has significantly expanded the use of voting machines in larger polling stations to enhance transparency and minimize manual counting errors. Seat allocation follows the Hare-Niemeyer method, ensuring a mathematically precise reflection of the national voter will.

To enter the Bulgarian Parliament, parties must clear a nationwide electoral threshold of 4% of the valid votes. This hurdle applies uniformly to individual parties and party alliances. While independent candidates face a different calculation threshold at the constituency level, this rarely occurs in practice. The 4% threshold aims to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation and facilitate the formation of stable governing coalitions within Bulgaria's often dynamic political landscape.

Forming a government in Bulgaria requires an absolute majority of the members present in Parliament. The President successively grants the mandate to form a government to the three strongest parliamentary groups if prior attempts fail. Given that proportional representation often results in a multi-party parliament, coalitions or parliamentary support agreements are the norm. Negotiations typically center on a shared agenda for judicial reform, economic policy, and integration into European structures like the Eurozone and Schengen Area.