Bulgaria: Opinion poll by Market LINKS on 12/20/2024

The National Assembly of Bulgaria (Narodno Sabranie) is composed of 240 members elected for a four-year term. The country utilizes a proportional representation system with candidate lists across 31 multi-member constituencies. A notable feature of the Bulgarian process is the extensive use of voting machines in larger polling stations, implemented to enhance transparency and reduce errors associated with manual counting. Seats are allocated nationally using the Hare-Niemeyer method, ensuring that the parliamentary composition accurately reflects the total share of votes received by each party.

To enter the National Assembly, political parties and coalitions must clear a nationwide electoral threshold of 4% of the valid votes. This requirement remains the same for both individual parties and electoral alliances. The primary purpose of this threshold is to maintain parliamentary stability and prevent excessive fragmentation, which can complicate the formation of a functioning executive. Votes cast for parties that do not meet this 4% minimum are excluded from the final seat distribution process.

Forming a government in Bulgaria requires an absolute majority of the members present in the National Assembly. The President grants the mandate to form a cabinet sequentially to the three largest parliamentary groups if initial attempts fail. Given the proportional nature of the elections, single-party governments are rare, making coalitions or parliamentary support agreements the standard. Negotiations often center on key national priorities such as judicial reform, economic stability, and deeper integration into European structures like the Eurozone and the Schengen Area.

This overview shows all parties that, based on current polling, have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Bulgaria or significantly shape the political debate. Classifying their political orientation is essential for understanding bloc formation and the mathematically possible majorities in the next parliament.