Trend achieved a PolitPro Score of 48 out of 100.
On average, Trend's figures deviate by 3.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 22% of polls, Trend rated BSP higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 29% of polls, Trend rated PP/DB higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 56% of polls, Trend rated Vŭzrazhdane higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 22% of polls, Trend rated GERB lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.
On average, Trend's figures deviate by 3.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
With an average deviation of 3.66 percentage points per party, Trend ranks 5 out of 7.
With an average deviation of 1.50 percentage points per party, Trend ranks 2 out of 2.
With an average deviation of 4.05 percentage points per party, Trend ranks 4 out of 6.
Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).