Bulgaria: Poll by Mediana from 18.05.2024

Polling data

GERB
27.5
+2.9
V
15.7
+3.2
DPS
14.2
+2.9
PP/DB
13.7
-9.0
BSP
9.0
+0.1
ITN
6.2
+3.1
SB
3.1
+3.1
L
2.9
+2.9
SBG
2.7
+2.7
VMRO
1.3
+1.3
BV
1.2
-3.3
Others
2.5
-9.9
Development since the last election on 27.10.2024
GERB
+2.0
V
+2.8
DPS
+3.0
PP/DB
±0.0
BSP
+1.7
ITN
-0.4
SB
+2.1
L
New
SBG
New
VMRO
New
BV
New
Mediana – 978 respondents – 12.05.2024-18.05.2024

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Bulgaria is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Bulgaria - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Bulgaria from Mediana shows the following results: GERB 27.5%, Vŭzrazhdane 15.7%, DPS 14.2%, PP/DB 13.7%, BSP 9%, ITN 6.2%, SB 3.1%, Levitsata 2.9%, SBG 2.7%, VMRO 1.3% and BV 1.2%. If an election were held in Bulgaria this Sunday, DPS might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. ITN, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-0.4) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Galab Donev is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from GERB, DB and PP. With 31.9% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Mediana. For this purpose, 978 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (12.05.2024 - 18.05.2024).

Coalition possibilities

240
Majority requires 121 seats
BSP
25
10.4%
ITN
17
7.2%
DPS
39
16.5%
GERB
77
31.9%
PP/DB
38
15.9%
V
44
18.2%
GERB + DPS + PP/DB
64.2%
GERB + DPS + BSP
58.8%
GERB + PP/DB + BSP
58.3%
GERB + DPS + ITN
55.4%
GERB + PP/DB + ITN
55.0%
GERB + Vŭzrazhdane
50.4%
Vŭzrazhdane + DPS + PP/DB
50.4%
GERB + BSP + ITN
49.6%
DPS + PP/DB + BSP + ITN
49.6%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Bulgaria was conducted by Mediana. The survey took place between 12.05.2024 and 18.05.2024 among 978 eligible voters. After this election poll would get GERB 27.5%, Vŭzrazhdane 15.7%, DPS 14.2%, PP/DB 13.7%, BSP 9%, ITN 6.2%, SB 3.1%, Levitsata 2.9%, SBG 2.7%, VMRO 1.3% and BV 1.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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