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Latest Carinthia Opinion Poll (IFDD, February 11, 2023).

January 17, 2023 - February 11, 2023

500 respondents

Next General Election in Carinthia: 2028

The next General Election in Carinthia is expected in 2028.

Carinthia's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority.

Based on the IFDD projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 58.3% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from IFDD?

According to the latest national poll in Carinthia by IFDD, SPÖ secures 46% support. They are followed by FPÖ: 23%, Team Kärnten: 11%, ÖVP: 10%, GRÜNE: 5%, NEOS: 3% and Vision Österreich: 1%. Other parties secure 1% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Carinthia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Carinthia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the IFDD Projection?

87

PolitPro Score

IFDD achieved a PolitPro Score of 87 out of 100.

1.1

Election Accuracy

On average, IFDD's figures deviate by 1.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

IFDD at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Carinthia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
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Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: IFDD)

According to IFDD data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Carinthia's parliament: SPÖ with 18 representatives, FPÖ with 9 representatives, Team Kärnten with 4 representatives, ÖVP with 3 representatives and GRÜNE with 2 representatives.

The Electoral System in Carinthia

The Carinthian Landtag, or state parliament, comprises 36 members. The state is divided into four major constituencies. Carinthia employs the D'Hondt method for seat allocation. A distinctive feature has been the political tradition of the 'Proporzsystem' (a mandatory proportional representation in government), though this has been gradually reformed in recent years towards free coalition formation.

Electoral Thresholds

Carinthia's electoral threshold stands at 5% of valid votes at the state level. Alternatively, securing a basic mandate in one of the four constituencies suffices. This hurdle, slightly higher than at the federal level, intensifies competition among smaller parties in the sunny south.

Government Formation and Traditions

Carinthia has abolished its former 'Proporzsystem,' transitioning to free coalition formation. Nevertheless, the political culture in the south often strives to forge broad majorities within the Landtag. Coalition negotiations in Klagenfurt are traditionally intense, frequently spanning several weeks until a detailed work program is established.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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