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Latest Carinthia Opinion Poll (Peter Hajek, February 17, 2023).

February 13, 2023 - February 17, 2023

800 respondents

Next General Election in Carinthia: 2028

The next General Election in Carinthia is expected in 2028.

Carinthia's Governing Coalition Retains Stable Majority.

Based on the Peter Hajek projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 61.1% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Peter Hajek?

According to the latest national poll in Carinthia by Peter Hajek, SPÖ secures 43% support. They are followed by FPÖ: 23%, Team Kärnten: 13%, ÖVP: 11%, GRÜNE: 4%, NEOS: 4% and Vision Österreich: 2%.

Current Election Trend: Carinthia
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
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Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Carinthia
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Peter Hajek Projection?

71

PolitPro Score

Peter Hajek achieved a PolitPro Score of 71 out of 100.

2.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Peter Hajek's figures deviate by 2.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Peter Hajek at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Carinthia is 5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • SPÖ
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  • FPÖ
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Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • SPÖ
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  • FPÖ
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  • ÖVP
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How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

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Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Peter Hajek)

According to Peter Hajek data, 4 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Carinthia's parliament: SPÖ with 18 representatives, FPÖ with 9 representatives, Team Kärnten with 5 representatives and ÖVP with 4 representatives.

The Electoral System in Carinthia

The Carinthian Landtag, or state parliament, comprises 36 members. The state is divided into four major constituencies. Carinthia employs the D'Hondt method for seat allocation. A distinctive feature has been the political tradition of the 'Proporzsystem' (a mandatory proportional representation in government), though this has been gradually reformed in recent years towards free coalition formation.

Electoral Thresholds

Carinthia's electoral threshold stands at 5% of valid votes at the state level. Alternatively, securing a basic mandate in one of the four constituencies suffices. This hurdle, slightly higher than at the federal level, intensifies competition among smaller parties in the sunny south.

Government Formation and Traditions

Carinthia has abolished its former 'Proporzsystem,' transitioning to free coalition formation. Nevertheless, the political culture in the south often strives to forge broad majorities within the Landtag. Coalition negotiations in Klagenfurt are traditionally intense, frequently spanning several weeks until a detailed work program is established.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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