Latest voting intention survey by IPSOS PLUS for Croatia
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Croatia conducted by IPSOS PLUS, the parties received the following results: HDZ 25.2%, SDP 23.7%, Nezavisna lista Miroslava Škore 12.5%, Most 4.4%, KH 3%, Pametno 2.3%, BM 365 1.7%, IDS 1.6%, HNS 1.3% and HSS 1.3%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 992 people during the period 20.03.2020 - 20.03.2020. The survey was commissioned by Dnevnik.
992 participants
20.03.2020 - 20.03.2020
IPSOS PLUS
Dnevnik
Seats in parliament
151
Majority requires 76 seats
SDP
58
38.6%
HDZ
62
41%
NLMŠ
31
20.4%
HDZ + SDP
SDP
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in IPSOS PLUS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 3.6 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
3.58
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.