Latest voting intention survey by IPSOS PULS for Croatia
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Croatia conducted by IPSOS PULS, the parties received the following results: HDZ 27.9%, SDP 23.2%, DP 10.5%, Most 5.1%, Pametno 2.8%, IDS 2.6%, Hrvatski suverenisti 1.6%, KH 1.3%, BM 365 1.1%, HSS 1.1% and HNS 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1008 people during the period 22.04.2020 - 22.04.2020. The survey was commissioned by Dnevnik.
1008 participants
22.04.2020 - 22.04.2020
IPSOS PULS
Dnevnik
Seats in parliament
151
Majority requires 76 seats
SDP
53
34.8%
HDZ
63
41.8%
Most
11
7.6%
DP
24
15.7%
HDZ + SDP
HDZ + DP
HDZ + Most
Rating of parties
Institute often rates HDZ higher
In 42% of election polls, IPSOS PULS rates HDZ higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SDP lower
In 73% of election polls IPSOS PULS rates SDP lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in IPSOS PULS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 5.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
2.65
7.54
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.