Latest voting intention survey by Ninamedia for Croatia
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Croatia conducted by Ninamedia, the parties received the following results: HDZ 23.4%, SDP 17.1%, KH 8.3%, Most 4.8%, Neovisni za Hrvatsku 3.2%, GLAS 2.9%, BM 365 1.8%, IDS 1.7%, HSS 0.9% and HNS 0.7%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 959 people during the period 13.12.2018 - 13.12.2018.
959 participants
13.12.2018 - 13.12.2018
Ninamedia
Seats in parliament
151
Majority requires 76 seats
SDP
53
35%
KH
25
17%
HDZ
73
48%
HDZ + SDP
HDZ + KH
SDP + KH
HDZ
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Ninamedia pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 0.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.