Croatia Election Poll: Results from Ipsos on October 26, 2023

According to Ipsos data, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Croatian parliament: HDZ with 66 representatives, SDP with 30 representatives, Most with 20 representatives, Možemo! with 18 representatives and DP with 17 representatives.

Croatia's Parliament, the Sabor, comprises 151 members elected through a mixed proportional representation system. The country is divided into ten geographical constituencies, each allocating 14 seats. Two additional special constituencies exist: one provides three seats for the Croatian diaspora (voters residing outside Croatia), while the other reserves eight seats for national minority representatives. Voters cast their ballots for party lists but can influence the selection of a specific candidate within a list via a preferential vote.

To enter Croatia's Parliament, parties face a 5% electoral threshold applied at the constituency level. Since votes are not nationally aggregated, parties or coalitions must individually clear this hurdle in each of the ten geographical constituencies to participate in seat allocation via the D'Hondt method. An exception applies to national minority seats, which are allocated by a majority principle in a special nationwide constituency. This structure often favors regionally strong parties and stabilizes minority representation in the Sabor.

Forming a government in Croatia requires an absolute majority of at least 76 out of 151 seats in the Sabor. As the electoral system frequently prevents any single party from achieving this majority alone, coalitions are the norm. Following an election, the President of the Republic conducts consultations with parties and tasks the individual who can credibly demonstrate parliamentary majority support with forming the government. The eight representatives of national minorities often serve as crucial kingmakers in forging stable governing alliances.