Croatia: Opinion poll by Promocija PLUS on 12/04/2025

The Croatian Parliament (Sabor) is composed of 151 members elected through a multi-constituency proportional representation system. The country is divided into ten geographical districts, each electing 14 members. Additionally, two special constituencies are utilized: one allocates three seats to the Croatian diaspora (citizens living abroad), and the other reserves eight seats for representatives of national minorities. Voters cast their ballots for party lists but can also exercise a preferential vote, allowing them to support a specific candidate and potentially change their ranking on the list.

To secure seats in the Sabor, political parties and coalitions must surpass an electoral threshold of 5% within each specific geographical constituency. Because the threshold is applied at the district level rather than nationally, parties must perform strongly in individual regions to participate in the seat allocation process, which follows the D'Hondt method. The eight minority seats are exempt from this 5% rule, as they are elected through a separate plurality-based system, ensuring that ethnic minorities maintain a guaranteed voice in the national legislature.

Forming a government in Croatia requires an absolute majority of at least 76 out of 151 parliamentary seats. As the electoral system often results in no single party holding a majority, coalition governments are standard. Following the election, the President of the Republic conducts consultations with party leaders and grants the mandate to form a government to the individual who can prove they have the backing of a parliamentary majority. Historically, the representatives of national minorities often play a crucial role as "kingmakers" in securing a stable governing coalition.

This overview shows all parties that, based on current polling, have a realistic chance of entering parliament in Croatia or significantly shape the political debate. Classifying their political orientation is essential for understanding bloc formation and the mathematically possible majorities in the next parliament.