Latest polls by Promocija PLUS

Promocija PLUS at a glance

Party assessment

Historical poll results compared to the overall election trend in %

Lower
Equal
Higher
Centar
Transversal
2
92
7
DOMiNO
Right
100
0
0
DP
Right-wing populist
41
52
8
HDZ
Christian democratic
31
51
17
IDS
Liberal
0
100
0
Most
Conservative
8
85
8
Možemo!
Left
68
22
11
MSR NL
Unknown
0
100
0
PP
Unknown
0
100
0
SDP
Social democratic
7
38
55
How is the data calculated?
The PolitPro election trend serves as the reference value and represents a time-weighted average of current opinion polls. A poll result is classified as higher or lower if it differs from the trend by more than one percentage point.

Election accuracy

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Election accuracy

On average, the poll results of Promocija PLUS deviate by percentage points from the final election result.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from election results in past elections

How do we calculate election accuracy?
Election accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare an institute’s pre-election polls with the final election outcome. For each election, we calculate the average deviation of party results and then compute an overall average. Only parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included. Opinion polls generally have a margin of error of 2–3 percentage points. Average deviations of up to 1 percentage point are rated as very good (green), up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are rated as ok (orange) but already show clear outliers for some parties. Average deviations above 3 percentage points indicate weaknesses in accuracy and reliability and are rated as poor (red).

Sources of data and information

PolitPro

PolitPro brings together scientific data and current poll results to make politics tangible for everyone. We use datasets from leading research projects and complement them with our own research, analyses, and algorithms. This allows us to make complex political contexts accessible and easy to understand. Supported by AI.

Found a mistake?

Political data changes every day. If you notice an error, feel free to send us an email. A short source reference helps us review the information.