Latest Opinion Poll for Cyprus (Prime Research, October 23, 2020)

October 16, 2020 - October 23, 2020

1050 respondents

Next General election in Cyprus: May 24, 2026

The next General election in Cyprus takes place in 78 days.

Cyprus' Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Prime Research projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 21.4% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Prime Research?

In the latest opinion poll for the election in Cyprus, conducted by Prime Research on October 23, 2020, DISY leads with 30.5%. Trailing are AKEL: 26.1%, DIKO: 13.2%, EDEK: 6.2%, ELAM: 6.2%, KOSP: 6%, DIPA: 2.5% and ΚΑ: 1.8%. Other parties secure 7.5% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Prime Research Projection?

65

PolitPro Score

Prime Research achieved a PolitPro Score of 65 out of 100.

1.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Prime Research's figures deviate by 1.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Cyprus is 3.5%.

AKEL + DIKO + EDEK
Centre-Left
51.8%
DISY + DIKO
Centre-Right
50.0%
AKEL + DIKO + KOSP
Centre-Left
50.0%
DISY + EDEK + KOSP
Centre
48.2%
AKEL + DIKO
Centre-Left
44.6%
DISY + EDEK
Centre-Right
42.9%
AKEL + EDEK + KOSP
Left
42.9%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Prime Research)

According to data from Prime Research, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Cyprus parliament: DISY with 20 representatives, AKEL with 17 representatives, DIKO with 8 representatives, EDEK with 4 representatives, ELAM with 4 representatives and KOSP with 3 representatives.

The Electoral System in Cyprus

Cyprus's House of Representatives (Vouli ton Antiprosopon) is elected through a proportional representation system across six constituencies. These constituencies align with the island's administrative districts. While 80 seats are allocated, only 56 are effectively filled; the 24 seats reserved for the Turkish-Cypriot community have remained vacant since the constitutional conflicts of 1963/64. Voters can influence the selection of specific candidates within a party list through preference votes, fostering intra-party competition.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Cypriot Parliament, parties must clear a nationwide electoral threshold, raised to 3.6% of valid votes in 2015. Meeting this threshold is crucial for parties to participate in seat allocation during the second and third phases of the counting process. The threshold increase aimed to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation and foster more stable majorities, while still allowing smaller political movements a realistic chance at representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Cyprus operates as a presidential republic, strictly separating its executive and legislative branches. The President, directly elected by the people, serves as both head of state and head of government. The President independently forms their cabinet, distinct from parliamentary influence. However, for stable legislation, the President relies on majorities within the House of Representatives, often leading to the formation of parliamentary alliances or coalitions. These alliances are frequently purpose-driven, formed to pass critical legislative initiatives or the state budget.

Data Sources and Methodology

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