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Latest Opinion Poll for Cyprus (Stratego-IMR, May 15, 2026)

May 11, 2026 - May 15, 2026

800 respondents

Next General Election in Cyprus: 2031

The next General Election in Cyprus is expected in 2031.

Cyprus' Incumbent Government Lacks Majority

Based on the Stratego-IMR projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 8.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Stratego-IMR?

According to the latest national poll in Cyprus by Stratego-IMR, DISY leads with 23%. They are followed by AKEL: 19.9%, ELAM: 13.3%, ALMA: 9.9%, DIKO: 8.7%, Ámesi Dimokratía: 7.6%, Volt: 4.6%, EDEK: 2.4%, KOSP: 2.4%, DIPA: 1.5% and KEKK: 1.5%. Other parties secure 4.7% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Cyprus
Poll results, coalitions, and election data
All Election Polls
Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data
What do the parties stand for?
Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Cyprus
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Quality Check: How Reliable is the Stratego-IMR Projection?

?

PolitPro Score

Stratego-IMR achieved a PolitPro Score of ? out of 100.

2.4

Election Accuracy

On average, Stratego-IMR's figures deviate by 2.4 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Stratego-IMR at a Glance
Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias
Which institutes are the most reliable?
Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the election in Cyprus is 3.5%.

PolitPro Analysis
Likelihood of an Absolute Majority
  • DISY
    ??%
  • AKEL
    ??%
  • ELAM
    ??%
Likelihood of Winning the Election
  • DISY
    ??%
  • AKEL
    ??%
  • ELAM
    ??%
  • ALMA
    ??%
  • DIKO
    ??%
  • ÁDK
    ??%
  • Volt
    ??%
  • KOSP
    ??%
Likelihood of Crossing the Electoral Threshold
  • Volt
    ??%
  • EDEK
    ??%
  • KOSP
    ??%
  • DIPA
    ??%
  • KEKK
    ??%

How Does the PolitPro Analysis Work?

Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Unlock Analysis
DISY + ALMA + DIKO + Volt
Centre-Right
51.8%
AKEL + ALMA + DIKO + Volt
Centre-Left
48.2%
DISY + ALMA + DIKO
Centre-Right
46.4%
AKEL + ALMA + DIKO
Centre-Left
42.9%
DISY + ALMA + Volt
Centre-Right
42.9%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Stratego-IMR)

According to data from Stratego-IMR, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Cyprus parliament: DISY with 15 representatives, AKEL with 13 representatives, ELAM with 9 representatives, ALMA with 6 representatives, DIKO with 5 representatives, Ámesi Dimokratía with 5 representatives and Volt with 3 representatives.

The Electoral System in Cyprus

Cyprus's House of Representatives (Vouli ton Antiprosopon) is elected through a proportional representation system across six constituencies. These constituencies align with the island's administrative districts. While 80 seats are allocated, only 56 are effectively filled; the 24 seats reserved for the Turkish-Cypriot community have remained vacant since the constitutional conflicts of 1963/64. Voters can influence the selection of specific candidates within a party list through preference votes, fostering intra-party competition.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Cypriot Parliament, parties must clear a nationwide electoral threshold, raised to 3.6% of valid votes in 2015. Meeting this threshold is crucial for parties to participate in seat allocation during the second and third phases of the counting process. The threshold increase aimed to prevent excessive parliamentary fragmentation and foster more stable majorities, while still allowing smaller political movements a realistic chance at representation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Cyprus operates as a presidential republic, strictly separating its executive and legislative branches. The President, directly elected by the people, serves as both head of state and head of government. The President independently forms their cabinet, distinct from parliamentary influence. However, for stable legislation, the President relies on majorities within the House of Representatives, often leading to the formation of parliamentary alliances or coalitions. These alliances are frequently purpose-driven, formed to pass critical legislative initiatives or the state budget.

Coalition Calculator
Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

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