Latest polls from Median
31
12.5
11
9.5
9
5.5
4.5
4
3
3
2
2
3
31.5
13
12
10.5
7
5.5
4.5
4
3
3
3
1.5
1.5
35
13
10.5
9
6.5
6
4.5
4.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
1.5
2
34.5
15.5
11
8.5
6
5.5
4.5
4
3.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1
Rating of parties
Institute often rates Piráti lower
In 42% of election polls Median rates Piráti lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Median pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.0 percentage points.
Average ranking
Compared to other institutes' accuracy in pre-election polls, Median's average ranking is 3.0.
0x the most accurate prediction
2
1x the second best prediction
3
0x the third best prediction
4
1x on rank 4