Latest Opinion Poll for Czech Republic (Ipsos, May 4, 2025)

April 28, 2025 - May 4, 2025

1045 respondents

Next General election in the Czech Republic: 2029

The next General election in the Czech Republic is expected in 2029.

Incumbent Government in Czech Republic Lacks Majority

Based on the Ipsos projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 11.0% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Ipsos?

In the latest opinion poll for the Czech election, conducted by Ipsos on May 4, 2025, ANO 2011 holds a lead with 34.4%. Trailing behind are SPOLU: 21.7%, SPD: 10.4%, STAN: 9.8%, Piráti: 6.1%, Stačilo!: 5.8%, Auto: 4.5%, Přísaha: 2.4%, Zelení: 2.1% and SOCDEM: 1.8%. Other parties secure 1% of the votes.

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Ipsos Projection?

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Czech Republic election is 5%.

ANO 2011 + SPD + STAN
Right
59.0%
ANO 2011 + SPD + Auto
Right
55.5%
ANO 2011 + SPD + Stačilo!
Right
55.5%
ANO 2011 + SPOLU
Centre-Right
55.0%
ANO 2011 + STAN + Piráti
Centre-Right
52.5%
SPOLU + SPD + STAN + Auto
Centre-Right
51.0%
ANO 2011 + STAN + Auto
Centre-Right
50.0%
ANO 2011 + STAN + Stačilo!
Centre-Right
50.0%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Median)

According to Median, 7 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Czech Republic's Chamber of Deputies: ANO 2011 with 69 representatives, SPOLU with 41 representatives, SPD with 30 representatives, STAN with 19 representatives, Piráti with 17 representatives, Auto with 12 representatives and Stačilo! with 12 representatives.

Czech Republic's Electoral System

The Czech Chamber of Deputies (Poslanecká sněmovna) comprises 200 members elected for a four-year term under a system of proportional representation. The country is divided into 14 electoral districts, corresponding to its regions (Kraje). Voters cast their ballots for a party list but can also support individual candidates with up to four preferential votes. Should a candidate secure enough preferential votes, they advance on the list, granting voters direct influence over the parliament's composition.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Chamber of Deputies, individual parties in the Czech Republic must clear a 5% national electoral threshold. The hurdle rises for electoral alliances: two-party coalitions require 7%, while alliances of three or more parties need 11%. This rule aims to boost parliamentary stability and prevent excessive fragmentation by smaller fringe parties. Parties failing to meet this threshold secure no seats in the D'Hondt method of seat allocation.

Government Formation and Traditions

Government formation in the Czech Republic typically begins with the President tasking the leader of the strongest party or a successful electoral alliance. As the electoral system rarely grants any single party an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. A new government must face a vote of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies within 30 days of its appointment. Political stability often hinges on internal coalition discipline, as the parliament can unseat the government through a vote of no confidence.

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

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