Kantar
Česká televize
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Česká televize
929 respondents
The next Czech Republic General Election is expected in 2029.
Based on the Kantar projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 38.5% of the parliamentary seats.
According to the latest national poll in Czechia by Kantar, Piráti + STAN leads with 27%. They are followed by SPOLU: 21.5%, ANO 2011: 21%, SPD: 12%, KSČM: 5%, SOCDEM: 4% and T–S–Z: 3.5%. Other parties secure 6% of the votes.
Kantar achieved a PolitPro Score of 64 out of 100.
On average, Kantar's figures deviate by 2.0 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.
In 33% of polls, Kantar rated ANO 2011 higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 53% of polls, Kantar rated ODS higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 28% of polls, Kantar rated Piráti higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 20% of polls, Kantar rated SPD higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 24% of polls, Kantar rated STAN higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 30% of polls, Kantar rated ANO 2011 lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 44% of polls, Kantar rated KSČM lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
In 28% of polls, Kantar rated SPD lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).
The electoral threshold for the Czech Republic election is 5%.
Election polls are not predictions; they are snapshots subject to statistical fluctuations. To provide a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we factor in typical voter migration patterns and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from minor shifts within political camps to unexpected political developments – to determine the true chances of success for parties and coalitions.
According to Kantar, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter the Czech Republic's Chamber of Deputies: Piráti + STAN with 62 representatives, SPOLU with 50 representatives, ANO 2011 with 49 representatives, SPD with 28 representatives and KSČM with 11 representatives.
The Czech Chamber of Deputies (Poslanecká sněmovna) comprises 200 members elected for a four-year term under a system of proportional representation. The country is divided into 14 electoral districts, corresponding to its regions (Kraje). Voters cast their ballots for a party list but can also support individual candidates with up to four preferential votes. Should a candidate secure enough preferential votes, they advance on the list, granting voters direct influence over the parliament's composition.
To enter the Chamber of Deputies, individual parties in the Czech Republic must clear a 5% national electoral threshold. The hurdle rises for electoral alliances: two-party coalitions require 7%, while alliances of three or more parties need 11%. This rule aims to boost parliamentary stability and prevent excessive fragmentation by smaller fringe parties. Parties failing to meet this threshold secure no seats in the D'Hondt method of seat allocation.
Government formation in the Czech Republic typically begins with the President tasking the leader of the strongest party or a successful electoral alliance. As the electoral system rarely grants any single party an absolute majority, coalition governments are the norm. A new government must face a vote of confidence in the Chamber of Deputies within 30 days of its appointment. Political stability often hinges on internal coalition discipline, as the parliament can unseat the government through a vote of no confidence.