PolitPro

Czechia Median: election poll for the Czech Chamber of Deputies election from 31 July 2026

Strongest Force
19.0 points ahead of STAN
Government Majority
Stable Majority
109 of 200 seats in the Election Trend
Election year
2029
estimated

Voting Intention Poll for the Czech Chamber of Deputies Election

The bars show the results of this single poll; the chips show the change compared to the last election. Median: single poll for the Czech Chamber of Deputies election, fieldwork concluded 31 July 2026.

Changes since the last election on 4 October 2025

ANO
34.0
-0.5
15.0
+3.8
ODS
12.0
+12.0
8.0
-1.0
SPD
7.5
-0.3
4.5
-2.3
KDU
3.5
+3.5
3.5
+3.5
3.5
+3.5
3.0
+3.0
Other
5.5
Institute
Median
Survey Period
01/07/2026 – 31/07/2026
Respondents
1,022
Czech governing coalition secures a stable majority

Based on this poll, the parties currently in government would win 54.5% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading according to the poll by Median?

A recent voting intention poll for Czechia by Median shows ANO 2011 leading with 34%, followed by STAN with 15%, ODS with 12%, Piráti with 8%, SPD with 7.5%, Motoristé with 4.5%, KDU-ČSL with 3.5%, KSČM with 3.5%, Naše Česko with 3.5% and TOP 09 with 3%. Other parties achieve 5.5% of the votes.

What do the symbols mean?

To make parties comparable, we indicate their political orientation with symbols. These categories provide a rough classification for a quick overview. More detailed information on political stances can be found on the parties' subpages.

  • Far-Left
  • Left
  • Centre-Left
  • Center
  • Transversal
  • Unknown
  • Centre-Right
  • Right
  • Far-Right
  • Liberal
  • Environment & Climate
  • Regional
  • Animal Welfare
  • Satire

Seat projection based on this poll

Median: how reliable is the projection?

69 PolitPro Score Rank 2 of 5 in Czechia
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 65.8
Avg. deviation in elections
2.5 pp

2 election comparisons

Recorded polls
54

Last on 31 July 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

Coalition calculator: majorities based on this poll

0
101
0 200
Majority 101

Parties

Select parties to test coalitions.

Scenarios: What if...?

Select all parties near the electoral threshold that should enter parliament. electoral threshold at 5%.

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PolitPro Analysis

Probability of an Absolute Majority

  1. ANO
    2%
  2. STAN
    0%
  3. ODS
    0%

Probability of Election Victory

  1. ANO
    100%
  2. STAN
    <1%
  3. ODS
    <1%

Probability of Entering Parliament

  1. Piráti
    97%
  2. SPD
    96%
  3. Moto
    32%
  4. KDU
    9%
  5. KSČM
    10%
  6. 9%
  7. TOP 09
    4%

How does the PolitPro Analysis work?

Election polls are not predictions, but snapshots with statistical fluctuations. To obtain a realistic picture, we daily simulate 100,000 election outcomes based on the PolitPro Election Trend using the 'Monte Carlo method'. In doing so, we include typical voter migration and political trends. Our algorithm tests various scenarios – from small shifts within camps to political surprises – to determine the actual chances of success for parties and coalitions.

Median: Projected composition of parliament

Based on this poll, 5 parties would clear the electoral threshold and enter the Czech Chamber of Deputies: ANO 2011 with 90 seats, STAN with 39 seats, ODS with 31 seats, Piráti with 21 seats and SPD with 19 seats.

The Electoral System in Czechia

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Electoral Threshold and Hurdles

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Government formation and coalition traditions

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