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Czechia NMS: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

NMS: current voting intention polls in Czechia

Previous polls by NMS

Poll on Respondents ANO STAN ODS SPD Piráti Moto TOP 09 KDU KSČM PRO Z Přísaha S Other View poll
May 5, 2026 1,022 32.5 14.5 14.8 8.7 6.7 4.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.3 7.7
April 7, 2026 1,031 32.7 13.7 13.9 7.4 8.0 4.4 4.1 3.1 2.5 2.8 7.4
March 10, 2026 1,048 31.5 13.6 14.1 7.8 8.3 7.1 2.6 2.6 3.0 2.5 1.4 1.1 4.4
February 17, 2026 1,001 32.6 14.6 14.7 6.5 7.2 4.7 4.7 2.4 2.6 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 3.9

NMS at a glance

58 PolitPro Score Rank 4 of 5 in Czechia
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 60.0
Avg. deviation in elections
3.0 pp

1 election comparisons

Recorded polls
18

Last on June 8, 2026

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

NMS: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
Motoristé
No significant deviation
0 % 20 %
At trend level
80 %
Polls
15
SPD
No significant deviation
0 % 17 %
At trend level
83 %
Polls
18
STAN
No significant deviation
0 % 17 %
At trend level
83 %
Polls
18
KDU-ČSL
No significant deviation
0 % 0 %
At trend level
100 %
Polls
9
KSČM
No significant deviation
0 % 0 %
At trend level
100 %
Polls
10
TOP 09
No significant deviation
0 % 0 %
At trend level
100 %
Polls
9
Piráti
No significant deviation
6 % 0 %
At trend level
94 %
Polls
18
ODS
Often rated lower
22 % 0 %
At trend level
78 %
Polls
9
ANO 2011
Often rated lower
50 % 0 %
At trend level
50 %
Polls
18
Naše Česko
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
4

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

NMS: How accurate were its past election polls?

Accuracy in Elections 3.0 Percentage points deviation Very Large Deviations Individual Parties: 0.6 to 5.6 percentage points
Parliamentary election in Czechia 2025 Rank 4 of 4 institutes
Very Accurate Very Inaccurate
Parliamentary election in Czechia 2025: 3.0
0 Very Reliable

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll was only slightly off the result.

0 Solid Results

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll deviated moderately from the result on average.

0 Significant Deviations

In 0 elections, pre-election polls and results differed significantly.

1 Very Large Deviations

In 1 elections, the pre-election poll significantly missed the result.

1 elections compared with NMS · Select point for details, tap category to highlight.

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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