PolitPro

Czechia SANEP: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

SANEP: current voting intention polls in Czechia

Previous polls by SANEP

Poll on Respondents ANO SPOLU PS ODS SPD Piráti KSČM STAN KDU Přísaha S TOP 09 SOCDEM T–S–Z Z Other View poll
8 June 2022 1,429 30.1 19.6 14.3 4.6 7.8 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.3 1.0 9.4
5 March 2022 1,673 28.7 17.3 11.2 5.2 2.4 9.5 4.6 6.4 3.7 1.2 9.8
3 February 2022 1,839 29.1 14.7 11.3 5.4 3.2 9.2 4.1 1.8 6.0 4.2 1.2 9.8
4 October 2021 1,897 26.1 20.7 18.3 10.2 5.0 4.0 6.1 2.6 1.0 6.0

SANEP at a glance

? PolitPro Score

No score calculated yet

Avg. deviation in elections
2.1 pp

1 election comparisons

Recorded polls
11

Last on 2 July 2022

Deviations from the Election Trend

Party often overestimated Party often underestimated

No significant deviations from the Election Trend

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

SANEP: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
SPD
No significant deviation
9 % 18 %
At trend level
73 %
Polls
11
KSČM
No significant deviation
0 % 0 %
At trend level
100 %
Polls
9
ANO 2011
No significant deviation
18 % 9 %
At trend level
73 %
Polls
11
KDU-ČSL
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
2
ODS
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
2
Piráti
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
3
Přísaha
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
2
STAN
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
3
TOP 09
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
2

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

SANEP: How accurate were its past election polls?

Accuracy in Elections 2.1 Percentage points deviation Significant Deviations Individual Parties: 0.6 to 7.1 percentage points
Parliamentary election in Czechia 2021 Rank 1 of 4 institutes
Very Accurate Very Inaccurate
Parliamentary election in Czechia 2021: 2.1
0 Very Reliable

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll was only slightly off the result.

0 Solid Results

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll deviated moderately from the result on average.

1 Significant Deviations

In 1 elections, pre-election polls and results differed significantly.

0 Very Large Deviations

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll significantly missed the result.

1 elections compared with SANEP · Select point for details, tap category to highlight.

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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