Latest voting intention survey by Epinion for Denmark
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Denmark conducted by Epinion, the parties received the following results: Socialdemokraterne 19.9%, Socialistisk Folkeparti 14.8%, Liberal Alliance 13%, Venstre 10.4%, Danmarksdemokraterne 9.9%, De Rød-Grønne 7.7%, Konservative Folkeparti 6.5%, Dansk Folkeparti 5.7%, Radikale Venstre 4.2%, Moderaterne 4% and Alternativet 2.2%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1614 people during the period 27.09.2024 - 27.09.2024. The survey was commissioned by Altinget.
1614 participants
27.09.2024 - 27.09.2024
Epinion
Altinget
Seats in parliament
179
Majority requires 90 seats
Ø
14
7.8%
F
27
15.1%
A
37
20.7%
B
7
3.9%
Å
4
2.2%
M
7
3.9%
I
24
13.4%
V
19
10.6%
C
12
6.7%
Æ
18
10.1%
O
10
5.6%
Socialdemokraterne + Liberal Alliance + Venstre + Radikale Venstre + Moderaterne
Socialdemokraterne + Liberal Alliance + Venstre + Konservative Folkeparti
Socialdemokraterne + Socialistisk Folkeparti + De Rød-Grønne + Radikale Venstre + Moderaterne
Socialdemokraterne + Liberal Alliance + Venstre + Radikale Venstre + Alternativet
Socialdemokraterne + Liberal Alliance + Venstre + Moderaterne + Alternativet
Socialdemokraterne + Socialistisk Folkeparti + De Rød-Grønne + Radikale Venstre + Alternativet
Socialdemokraterne + Socialistisk Folkeparti + De Rød-Grønne + Moderaterne + Alternativet
Socialdemokraterne + Socialistisk Folkeparti + De Rød-Grønne + Radikale Venstre
Rating of parties
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Epinion pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 1.0 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
0.95
|
Parliamentary Election in Dänemark 2022 | 4/6 |
What counts as accurate?
Election polls typically have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. Deviations up to 1 percentage point are considered very accurate (green), up to 2 percentage points accurate (yellow). Deviations of up to 3 percentage points are acceptable (orange) but can show significant outliers for certain parties. Deviations greater than 3 percentage points indicate low accuracy and reliability (red).
Calculation Methodology
We compare the final voting intention poll conducted within two weeks before an election with the actual election results. Each party’s performance is compared individually, and the average deviation across all parties is calculated.