Latest Election Polls by Verian

About Verian

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by Verian

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
Alternativet
Centre-Left
0
100
0
Borgernes Parti
Far-Right
8
92
0
Danmarksdemokraterne
Right-wing Populist
20
80
0
Dansk Folkeparti
Right-wing Populist
10
70
20
De Rød-Grønne
Left-wing
10
90
0
Konservative Folkeparti
Conservative
0
95
5
Liberal Alliance
Liberal
25
75
0
Moderaterne
Liberal
5
95
0
Radikale Venstre
Centre-Left
0
95
5
Socialdemokraterne
Social Democratic
15
70
15
Socialistisk Folkeparti
Left
5
75
20
Venstre
Liberal
0
85
15

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of Verian

0.7

Election Accuracy

On average, Verian's figures deviate by 0.7 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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