PolitPro

Denmark YouGov: election polls, forecast accuracy and deviations

YouGov: current voting intention polls in Denmark

Last Poll March 23, 2026

View poll
Polling period: March 5, 2026 – March 23, 2026 Respondents: 4,444

Change from poll on March 18, 2026

A
20.4
-1.0
F
13.9
+0.3
O
9.9
-0.2
I
9.6
-0.2
V
9.3
±0.0
C
8.3
+0.6
Ø
7.2
+0.9
M
6.4
+0.6
Æ
6.3
+0.1
B
4.6
-0.1
Å
2.4
+0.1
H
2.0
-0.3

Previous polls by YouGov

Poll on Respondents A F O I V C Ø M Æ D B Å H Q K Other View poll
March 18, 2026 4,966 21.4 13.6 10.1 9.8 9.3 7.7 6.3 5.8 6.2 4.7 2.3 2.3
October 26, 2022 1,261 28.6 8.3 2.6 7.1 10.4 6.5 6.7 9.6 8.5 4.3 3.6 2.3 0.7 0.5 0.3
October 20, 2022 1,343 30.3 7.2 2.8 6.8 10.6 8.0 5.3 7.9 8.3 5.1 3.1 2.3 1.6 0.5 0.2
October 13, 2022 1,271 30.6 8.1 3.4 5.5 10.5 10.4 5.1 4.4 10.6 4.4 4.3 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.3

YouGov at a glance

60 PolitPro Score Rank 5 of 5 in Denmark
Score from 0 to 100 Avg. all polling institutes: 79.4
Avg. deviation in elections
1.2 pp

3 election comparisons

Recorded polls
18

Last on March 23, 2026

What is the PolitPro Score for polling institutes?

In the PolitPro Score for polling institutes, we assess the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and their deviation from the Election Trend. Significant deviations in party values compared to the Election Trend lead to deductions, as they can indicate favoritism or disadvantage for parties. The score has a maximum value of 100.

YouGov: which parties does it overstate and understate?

Significant from 20 % of polls
Moderaterne
Often rated higher
14 % 57 %
At trend level
29 %
Polls
7
Liberal Alliance
No significant deviation
0 % 6 %
At trend level
94 %
Polls
18
Alternativet
No significant deviation
0 % 0 %
At trend level
100 %
Polls
18
De Rød-Grønne
Often rated lower
28 % 0 %
At trend level
72 %
Polls
18
Venstre
Often rated lower
83 % 0 %
At trend level
17 %
Polls
18
Borgernes Parti
Too few polls
Fewer than 5 polls – no statement possible
At trend level
Polls
2

How are the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend, which calculates a time-weighted average of current election polls, serves as a reference. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the Election Trend.

YouGov: How accurate were its past election polls?

Accuracy in Elections 1.0 Percentage points deviation Solid Results Individual Parties: 0.2 to 2.3 percentage points
Last Election Parliamentary election in Denmark 2026 Rank 4 of 6 institutes
Very Accurate Very Inaccurate
Parliamentary election in Denmark 2022: 0.9, Parliamentary election in Denmark 2026: 1.0, Parliamentary election in Denmark 2019: 1.8
1 Very Reliable

In 1 elections, the pre-election poll was only slightly off the result.

2 Solid Results

In 2 elections, the pre-election poll deviated moderately from the result on average.

0 Significant Deviations

In 0 elections, pre-election polls and results differed significantly.

0 Very Large Deviations

In 0 elections, the pre-election poll significantly missed the result.

3 elections compared with YouGov · Select point for details, tap category to highlight.

How do we calculate accuracy in elections?

Accuracy shows how close pre-election polls were to the actual election result. We compare the pre-election polls of the institutes with the actual result of an election. We compare the average deviation of the parties' values and form an average from them. In the calculation, we consider all parties with an election result of 3% and higher. Election polls have a margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We rate average deviations of up to one percentage point as very good (green), and up to 2 percentage points as good (yellow). Values up to 3 percentage points deviation are rated as ok (orange), but already show significant outliers for some parties. Average deviations of more than three percentage points indicate deficiencies in accuracy and significance and are rated as bad (red).

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