Current election polls and polling data from Norstat

Latest voting intention survey by Norstat for Estonia

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Estonia conducted by Norstat, the parties received the following results: Isamaa 28.2%, Keskerakond 20.8%, SDE 16.3%, EKRE 15.6%, Reformierakond 10.1%, Parempoolsed 5.4%, E200 1% and EER 1%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 1000 people during the period 30.11.2025 - 30.11.2025. The survey was commissioned by Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut.
1000 participants
24.11.2025 - 30.11.2025
Norstat
Ühiskonnauuringute Instituut
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+20.0
K
+5.5
SDE
+7.0
EKRE
-0.5
R
-21.1
P
+3.1
E200
-12.3
EER
±0.0
I
28.2
-0.9
K
20.8
+1.1
SDE
16.3
+2.2
EKRE
15.6
+1.2
R
10.1
-0.6
P
5.4
-2.0
E200
1.0
-1.0
EER
1.0
+0.1
Others
1.6
-0.1

Seats in parliament

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
17
16.8%
K
22
21.8%
R
11
10.9%
I
30
29.7%
P
5
5%
EKRE
16
15.8%
Isamaa + SDE + Reformierakond
57.4%
Isamaa + EKRE + Reformierakond
56.4%
Keskerakond + SDE + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
54.5%
Isamaa + Keskerakond
51.5%
Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed
51.5%
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed
50.5%
Keskerakond + SDE + Reformierakond
49.5%
68

PolitPro Score

Norstat achieves a score of 68/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
E200
36
59
5
EER
3
96
0
EKRE
16
53
31
I
9
64
27
K
9
59
31
P
29
69
2
R
13
42
45
SDE
31
64
4

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.1

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Norstat pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
3.13
 Parliamentary Election in Estonia 2023 3/3
1.1
 Parliamentary Election in Estonia 2019 1/4

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
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