Latest voting intention survey by Turu-uuringute AS for Estonia
In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Estonia conducted by Turu-uuringute AS, the parties received the following results: Isamaa 22%, Reformierakond 19%, EKRE 14%, Keskerakond 13%, SDE 13%, Parempoolsed 7%, E200 4%, KOOS 2%, EER 1%, Elurikkuse Erakond 1% and EÜVP 0%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 887 people during the period 30.11.2024 - 30.11.2024.
887 participants
21.11.2024 - 30.11.2024
Turu-uuringute AS
Seats in parliament
101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
15
14.9%
K
15
14.9%
R
22
21.8%
I
25
24.8%
P
8
7.9%
EKRE
16
15.8%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
Rating of parties
Institute often rates EKRE lower
In 31% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Keskerakond higher
In 41% of election polls, Turu-uuringute AS rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reformierakond lower
In 50% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)
What are significant differences?
The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.
Accuracy in elections
2.1
Average deviation
On average, party poll results in Turu-uuringute AS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.
Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results
| Deviation | Election | Rank |
|---|---|---|
|
2.11
|
Parliamentary Election in Estland 2019 | 4/4 |
How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?
We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.