Current election polls and polling data from Turu-uuringute AS

Latest voting intention survey by Turu-uuringute AS for Estonia

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Estonia conducted by Turu-uuringute AS, the parties received the following results: Isamaa 22%, Reformierakond 19%, EKRE 14%, Keskerakond 13%, SDE 13%, Parempoolsed 7%, E200 4%, KOOS 2%, EER 1%, Elurikkuse Erakond 1% and EÜVP 0%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 887 people during the period 30.11.2024 - 30.11.2024.
887 participants
21.11.2024 - 30.11.2024
Turu-uuringute AS
I
22.0
-3.0
R
19.0
+1.0
EKRE
14.0
+4.0
K
13.0
-1.0
SDE
13.0
-3.0
P
7.0
+1.0
E200
4.0
-2.0
KOOS
2.0
±0.0
EER
1.0
±0.0
ER
1.0
±0.0
EÜVP
0.0
±0.0
Others
4.0
+3.0

Seats in parliament

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
15
14.9%
K
15
14.9%
R
22
21.8%
I
25
24.8%
P
8
7.9%
EKRE
16
15.8%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
62.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
61.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
61.4%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE
54.5%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
54.5%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
51.5%

Rating of parties

Institute often rates EKRE lower

In 31% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 41% of election polls, Turu-uuringute AS rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 50% of election polls Turu-uuringute AS rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
E200
11
67
22
EER
9
91
0
EKRE
31
56
13
ER
0
100
0
EÜVP
0
100
0
I
23
69
8
K
20
39
41
KOOS
0
100
0
P
5
79
16
R
50
42
8
SDE
17
70
13

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.1

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Turu-uuringute AS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.

Average deviation of pre-election polls from the last election results

Deviation Election Rank
2.11
Parliamentary Election in Estland 2019 4/4

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

We compare pre-election polls from the institutes with the actual election results. This involves calculating the average deviation of party values and deriving an overall average. All parties with an election result of 3% or higher are included in the calculation.