Current election polls and polling data from Turu-uuringute AS

Latest voting intention survey by Turu-uuringute AS for Estonia

In the latest voting intention survey for the election in Estonia conducted by Turu-uuringute AS, the parties received the following results: Isamaa 22%, Reformierakond 17%, Keskerakond 16%, EKRE 15%, SDE 12%, Parempoolsed 7%, E200 3%, EER 2%, KOOS 2%, Elurikkuse Erakond 0% and EÜVP 0%. The voting intention survey interviewed a total of 893 people during the period 07.05.2025 - 07.05.2025.
893 participants
02.05.2025 - 07.05.2025
Turu-uuringute AS
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+13.8
R
-14.2
K
+0.7
EKRE
-1.1
SDE
+2.7
P
+4.7
E200
-10.3
EER
+1.0
KOOS
New
I
22.0
+2.0
R
17.0
-2.0
K
16.0
±0.0
EKRE
15.0
-4.0
SDE
12.0
+3.0
P
7.0
-2.0
E200
3.0
±0.0
EER
2.0
±0.0
KOOS
2.0
+1.0
Others
4.0
+2.0

Seats in parliament

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
14
13.9%
K
18
17.8%
R
19
18.8%
I
25
24.8%
P
8
7.9%
EKRE
17
16.8%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
61.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE
60.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
57.4%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE
56.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed
51.5%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
50.5%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + Parempoolsed
50.5%
Isamaa + EKRE + Parempoolsed
49.5%
68

PolitPro Score

Turu-uuringute AS achieves a score of 68/100 in the PolitPro Score.

What is the PolitPro Score?

The PolitPro Score evaluates the reliability of polling institutes based on their accuracy in elections and neutrality toward political parties. Significant biases in favor of or against parties compared to election trends result in deductions. The maximum score is 100.

Rating of parties

Comparison of historical poll results with overall election trends across all institutes (in %)

Lower
Similar
Higher
E200
11
68
21
EER
8
92
0
EKRE
30
56
14
ER
4
96
0
EÜVP
0
100
0
I
26
67
8
K
20
41
39
KOOS
0
100
0
P
5
76
19
R
48
44
8
SDE
17
71
12

What are significant differences?

The PolitPro election trend, which calculates a time-weighted average value of current election polls, serves as a comparison value. A poll value is considered higher/lower if it is more than one percentage point higher/lower than the election trend. The overview shows all parties for which there is a deviation in a particular direction in at least 30% of the institute's election polls.

Accuracy in elections

2.1

Average deviation

On average, party poll results in Turu-uuringute AS pre-election polls deviate from the actual result by 2.1 percentage points.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from the Results of Recent Elections

Deviation Election Rank
2.11
 Parliamentary Election in Estland 2019 4/4

How is an institute’s accuracy calculated?

The accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls matched the actual election results.
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