These symbols illustrate a party's political orientation to facilitate quick comparison. These categories offer a broad classification; for detailed policy positions, please visit the individual party pages.

Far-Left

Left

Centre-Left

Centre

Transversal

Unknown

Centre-Right

Right

Far-Right

Liberal

Green

Regional

Animal Welfare

Satire

Norstat

N/A

December 29, 2025 - January 3, 2026

1000 respondents

Next General election in Estonia: 2027

The next General election in Estonia is expected in 2027.

Estonia's Incumbent Government Without a Majority

Based on the Norstat projection, the incumbent governing parties would currently secure 14.9% of the parliamentary seats.

Who is leading in the latest poll from Norstat?

The latest opinion poll for the Estonian election, conducted by Norstat on January 3, 2026, shows Isamaa leading with 31.4%. They are followed by Keskerakond: 19.5%, Reformierakond: 13.6%, SDE: 13.1%, EKRE: 9.3%, Parempoolsed: 7.2%, E200: 2.6% and EER: 0.4%. Other parties secure 2.9% of the votes.

Current Election Trend: Estonia

Poll results, coalitions, and election data

All Election Polls

Latest surveys from all institutes and historical data

What do the parties stand for?

Information, comparisons, and data on parties in Estonia

Quality Check: How Reliable is the Norstat Projection?

PolitPro Score

Norstat achieved a PolitPro Score of 69 out of 100.

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Norstat's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Overestimates EKRE

In 32% of polls, Norstat rated EKRE higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Isamaa

In 28% of polls, Norstat rated Isamaa higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Keskerakond

In 31% of polls, Norstat rated Keskerakond higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Overestimates Reformierakond

In 40% of polls, Norstat rated Reformierakond higher than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates E200

In 31% of polls, Norstat rated E200 lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates EKRE

In 23% of polls, Norstat rated EKRE lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Keskerakond

In 22% of polls, Norstat rated Keskerakond lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates Reformierakond

In 21% of polls, Norstat rated Reformierakond lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Underestimates SDE

In 32% of polls, Norstat rated SDE lower than the PolitPro Election Trend (average of all institutes).

Norstat at a Glance

Polling data, historical accuracy, and party bias

Which institutes are the most reliable?

Election accuracy and methodological reliability

Potential Majorities and Coalition Scenarios

101

Majority requires 51 seats

Electoral Threshold

The electoral threshold for the Riigikogu election in Estonia is 5%.

Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE

Centre

62.4%

Isamaa + Reformierakond + EKRE

Centre-Right

58.4%

Keskerakond + Reformierakond + SDE + Parempoolsed

Centre-Left

56.4%

Isamaa + Reformierakond + Parempoolsed

Centre-Right

55.4%

Isamaa + Keskerakond

Centre-Right

54.5%

Isamaa + SDE + Parempoolsed

Centre-Right

54.5%

Keskerakond + Reformierakond + SDE

Centre-Left

49.5%

Isamaa + Reformierakond

Centre-Right

48.5%

Projected Parliamentary Composition (Source: Norstat)

According to Norstat, 6 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Estonia's parliament: Isamaa with 34 representatives, Keskerakond with 21 representatives, Reformierakond with 15 representatives, SDE with 14 representatives, EKRE with 10 representatives and Parempoolsed with 7 representatives.

The Electoral System in Estonia

The Estonian Parliament (Riigikogu) comprises 101 members, elected every four years through a proportional representation system. The country is divided into 12 multi-member electoral districts. Estonia leads globally in 'i-voting,' allowing citizens to securely cast their ballots online, a method utilized by over half the electorate. Seat allocation occurs in three stages: simple quotas in electoral districts, list mandates at the county level, and finally, compensatory mandates nationally to ensure high proportionality.

Electoral Thresholds

To enter the Riigikogu, Estonia enforces a nationwide 5% electoral threshold. Parties must secure this percentage of valid votes to be considered for list and compensatory mandates. However, individual candidates can still enter parliament without reaching the 5% threshold if they achieve a simple quota (known as a 'personal mandate') in their respective electoral district. This rule balances the stability of the party system with the significance of strong local personalities.

Government Formation and Traditions

Given that Estonia's electoral system typically produces a multi-party parliament, coalition governments are the norm. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister candidate – usually the leader of the strongest party – who then endeavors to form a coalition. The new government requires formal approval from the Riigikogu to take office. Estonian politics often features pragmatic alliances, frequently focusing on digitalization, economic stability, and national security.

Coalition Calculator

Which parties could form a stable majority?

Data Sources and Methodology

PolitPro

PolitPro bridges the gap between scientific research and current polling. We supplement leading datasets with our own proprietary research and algorithms to make complex political contexts tangible and accessible. Powered by AI.

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