Estonia: Isamaa remains the strongest party in Estonia despite decline (Norstat Poll from 11.01.2026)

According to RAIT Faktum & Ariko, 5 parties are projected to surpass the electoral threshold and enter Estonia's parliament: Reformierakond with 29 representatives, Keskerakond with 26 representatives, EKRE with 21 representatives, Isamaa with 13 representatives and SDE with 12 representatives.

The Estonian Parliament (Riigikogu) comprises 101 members, elected every four years through a proportional representation system. The country is divided into 12 multi-member electoral districts. Estonia leads globally in 'i-voting,' allowing citizens to securely cast their ballots online, a method utilized by over half the electorate. Seat allocation occurs in three stages: simple quotas in electoral districts, list mandates at the county level, and finally, compensatory mandates nationally to ensure high proportionality.

To enter the Riigikogu, Estonia enforces a nationwide 5% electoral threshold. Parties must secure this percentage of valid votes to be considered for list and compensatory mandates. However, individual candidates can still enter parliament without reaching the 5% threshold if they achieve a simple quota (known as a 'personal mandate') in their respective electoral district. This rule balances the stability of the party system with the significance of strong local personalities.

Given that Estonia's electoral system typically produces a multi-party parliament, coalition governments are the norm. Following an election, the President appoints a Prime Minister candidate – usually the leader of the strongest party – who then endeavors to form a coalition. The new government requires formal approval from the Riigikogu to take office. Estonian politics often features pragmatic alliances, frequently focusing on digitalization, economic stability, and national security.