Latest Election Polls by Turu-uuringute AS

About Turu-uuringute AS

65

PolitPro Score

Turu-uuringute AS achieved a PolitPro Score of 65 out of 100.

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Turu-uuringute AS's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Party Analysis: Statistical Deviations by Turu-uuringute AS

Historical Polls vs. Election Trend (in %)

Lower
Consistent
Higher
E200
Liberal
10
60
31
EER
Centre-Left
12
88
0
EKRE
Right
35
42
23
Isamaa
Conservative
30
58
13
Keskerakond
Centre-Left
21
44
35
Parempoolsed
Conservative
0
58
42
Reformierakond
Social Democratic
56
34
10
SDE
Centre-Left
21
58
21

How is the data calculated?

The PolitPro Election Trend serves as the benchmark, using a time-weighted average of all current surveys. A poll value is flagged if it deviates by more than one percentage point from this trend.

Performance Track Record: Historical Accuracy of Turu-uuringute AS

2.1

Election Accuracy

On average, Turu-uuringute AS's figures deviate by 2.1 percentage points between their final pre-election polls and actual election results.

Average Deviation of Pre-Election Polls from Actual Results (Historical)

How is election accuracy calculated?

Accuracy indicates how closely pre-election polls aligned with actual election results. We compare final surveys from various institutes with official outcomes. To do this, we calculate the average deviation across all parties that received at least 3% of the vote. Most election polls have a standard margin of error of 2-3 percentage points. We categorize average deviations as follows: up to 1 percentage point is "very good" (green); up to 2 points is "good" (yellow); up to 3 points is "acceptable" (orange), though this may indicate significant outliers for specific parties. Deviations exceeding 3 percentage points suggest a lack of predictive power and are rated "poor" (red).

Data Sources and Methodology

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