Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 19.01.2021

Estonia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
R
27.0
±0.0
K
19.0
+3.0
E200
17.0
-1.0
EKRE
14.0
-3.0
SDE
9.0
±0.0
I
8.0
+1.0
ER
4.0
-1.0
TULE
1.0
±0.0
Others
1.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-4.2
K
+3.7
E200
+3.7
EKRE
-2.1
SDE
-0.3
I
-0.2
ER
New
TULE
New
Kantar Emor – 1219 respondents – 14.01.2021-19.01.2021

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 higher

In 52% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond lower

In 45% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 33% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE higher

In 52% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Reformierakond 27%, Keskerakond 19%, E200 17%, EKRE 14%, SDE 9%, Isamaa 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 4% and TULE 1%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Keskerakond might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.7 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-4.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 46.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1219 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 5 days (14.01.2021 - 19.01.2021).

Coalition possibilities

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
10
9.9%
K
21
20.8%
E200
18
17.8%
R
29
28.7%
I
8
7.9%
EKRE
15
14.9%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
67.3%
Reformierakond + E200 + EKRE
61.4%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
59.4%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Isamaa
57.4%
Reformierakond + E200 + SDE
56.4%
Keskerakond + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
56.4%
Reformierakond + E200 + Isamaa
54.5%
Reformierakond + EKRE + Isamaa
51.5%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond
49.5%
Reformierakond + SDE + Isamaa
46.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 14.01.2021 and 19.01.2021 among 1219 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reformierakond 27%, Keskerakond 19%, E200 17%, EKRE 14%, SDE 9%, Isamaa 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 4% and TULE 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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