Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 16.12.2022

Estonia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
R
30.0
-1.0
EKRE
18.0
-4.0
K
16.0
+1.0
E200
14.0
±0.0
SDE
9.0
+1.0
I
8.0
+2.0
ER
3.0
±0.0
P
1.0
±0.0
Others
1.0
+1.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-1.2
EKRE
+1.9
K
+0.7
E200
+0.7
SDE
-0.3
I
-0.2
ER
+3.0
P
-1.3
Kantar Emor – 1510 respondents – 08.12.2022-16.12.2022

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 higher

In 51% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates EKRE lower

In 30% of election polls Kantar Emor rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond lower

In 44% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 33% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE higher

In 52% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Reformierakond 30%, EKRE 18%, Keskerakond 16%, E200 14%, SDE 9%, Isamaa 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 3% and Parempoolsed 1%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Elurikkuse Erakond might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. Parempoolsed, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-1.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 49.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1510 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 8 days (08.12.2022 - 16.12.2022).

Coalition possibilities

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
9
8.9%
K
17
16.8%
E200
15
14.9%
R
33
32.7%
I
8
7.9%
EKRE
19
18.8%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
64.4%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
58.4%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Isamaa
57.4%
Reformierakond + E200 + SDE
56.4%
Reformierakond + E200 + Isamaa
55.4%
Reformierakond + EKRE
51.5%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond
49.5%
Reformierakond + SDE + Isamaa
49.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 08.12.2022 and 16.12.2022 among 1510 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reformierakond 30%, EKRE 18%, Keskerakond 16%, E200 14%, SDE 9%, Isamaa 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 3% and Parempoolsed 1%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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