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Estonia: Poll by RAIT Faktum & Ariko from 27.02.2023

Polling data

R
24.0
-1.0
EKRE
22.0
+4.0
K
17.0
-5.0
E200
13.0
+9.0
I
8.0
-3.0
SDE
8.0
-3.0
ER
2.0
+2.0
P
1.0
+1.0
Others
5.0
±0.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-7.2
EKRE
+5.9
K
+1.7
E200
-0.3
I
-0.2
SDE
-1.3
ER
P
-1.3
RAIT Faktum & Ariko – 959 respondents – 10.02.2023-27.02.2023

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from RAIT Faktum & Ariko shows the following results: Ref 24%, EKRE 22%, Kesk 17%, E200 13%, Isamaa 8%, SDE 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 2% and Parempoolsed 1%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, EKRE might gain the most in voter favorability with +5.9 growth since the last election. Ref, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Ref, SDE and Isamaa. With 43.5% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by RAIT Faktum & Ariko. For this purpose, 959 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 17 days (10.02.2023 - 27.02.2023).

Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Coalition possibilities

Ref + EKRE + E200
64.1
Ref + Kesk + E200
58.7
Ref + EKRE + Isamaa
58.7
Ref + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
57.6
Ref + Kesk + Isamaa
53.3
Ref + Kesk + SDE
53.3
Ref + EKRE
50.0
Kesk + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
50.0
Government might not stay in office
In the current election trend, the government parties achieve 43.5% of the votes.

Frequently asked questions about election polls

election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by RAIT Faktum & Ariko. The survey took place between 10.02.2023 and 27.02.2023 among 959 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Ref 24%, EKRE 22%, Kesk 17%, E200 13%, Isamaa 8%, SDE 8%, Elurikkuse Erakond 2% and Parempoolsed 1%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.

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