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Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 02.03.2023

Polling data

R
29.0
+0.8
K
16.0
+2.1
E200
15.3
+1.8
EKRE
14.3
-3.8
SDE
11.5
+1.1
I
7.2
-1.9
P
2.4
+0.2
ER
2.2
-0.7
Others
2.1
0.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-2.2
K
+0.7
E200
+2.0
EKRE
-1.8
SDE
+2.2
I
-1.0
P
+0.1
ER
Kantar Emor – 1613 respondents – 28.02.2023-02.03.2023

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Ref 29%, Kesk 16%, E200 15.3%, EKRE 14.3%, SDE 11.5%, Isamaa 7.2%, Parempoolsed 2.4% and Elurikkuse Erakond 2.2%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, SDE might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.2 growth since the last election. Ref, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Ref, SDE and Isamaa. With 51.1% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1613 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (28.02.2023 - 02.03.2023).

Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Coalition possibilities

Ref + Kesk + E200
64.6
Ref + E200 + EKRE
62.8
Ref + Kesk + SDE
60.5
Ref + E200 + SDE
59.8
Ref + Kesk + Isamaa
55.9
Ref + E200 + Isamaa
55.2
Ref + EKRE + Isamaa
54.1
Kesk + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
53.5
Ref + SDE + Isamaa
51.1
Ref + Kesk
48.2
Ref + EKRE
46.4
Government would have to tremble
In the current election trend, the government parties achieve 51.1% of the votes.

Frequently asked questions about election polls

election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 28.02.2023 and 02.03.2023 among 1613 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Ref 29%, Kesk 16%, E200 15.3%, EKRE 14.3%, SDE 11.5%, Isamaa 7.2%, Parempoolsed 2.4% and Elurikkuse Erakond 2.2%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.

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