Estonia
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Elections

Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 02.03.2023

Polling data

R
29.0
+0.8
K
16.0
+2.1
E200
15.3
+1.8
EKRE
14.3
-3.8
SDE
11.5
+1.1
I
7.2
-1.9
P
2.4
+0.2
ER
2.2
-0.7
Sonst.
2.1
0.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-2.2
K
+0.7
E200
+2.0
EKRE
-1.8
SDE
+2.2
I
-1.0
P
+0.1
ER
Kantar Emor – 1613 respondents – 28.02.2023-02.03.2023
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates E200 higher
In 65% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates EKRE lower
In 31% of election polls Kantar Emor rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Keskerakond lower
In 56% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reformierakond lower
In 33% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SDE higher
In 56% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Reformierakond 29%, Keskerakond 16%, E200 15.3%, EKRE 14.3%, SDE 11.5%, Isamaa 7.2%, Parempoolsed 2.4% and Elurikkuse Erakond 2.2%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, SDE might gain the most in voter favorability with +2.2 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.2) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 51.1% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1613 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 2 days (28.02.2023 - 02.03.2023).

Coalition possibilities

Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
64.6
Reformierakond + E200 + EKRE
62.8
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
60.5
Reformierakond + E200 + SDE
59.8
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Isamaa
55.9
Reformierakond + E200 + Isamaa
55.2
Reformierakond + EKRE + Isamaa
54.1
Keskerakond + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
53.5
Reformierakond + SDE + Isamaa
51.1
Reformierakond + Keskerakond
48.2
Reformierakond + EKRE
46.4

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in website.ee was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 28.02.2023 and 02.03.2023 among 1613 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reformierakond 29%, Keskerakond 16%, E200 15.3%, EKRE 14.3%, SDE 11.5%, Isamaa 7.2%, Parempoolsed 2.4% and Elurikkuse Erakond 2.2%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.