Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 17.03.2023

Polling data

R
29.3
+0.3
E200
16.3
+1.0
EKRE
15.7
+1.4
K
15.4
-0.6
SDE
11.6
+0.1
I
5.9
-1.3
P
2.9
+0.5
ER
1.6
-0.6
EÜVP
1.5
+1.5
Kantar Emor – 1586 respondents – 09.03.2023-17.03.2023
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates E200 higher
In 61% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Keskerakond lower
In 52% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Reformierakond lower
In 34% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SDE higher
In 54% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Reformierakond 29.3%, E200 16.3%, EKRE 15.7%, Keskerakond 15.4%, SDE 11.6%, Isamaa 5.9%, Parempoolsed 2.9%, Elurikkuse Erakond 1.6% and EÜVP 1.5%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, E200 might gain the most in voter favorability with +3.0 growth since the last election. Isamaa, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-2.3) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 49.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1586 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 8 days (09.03.2023 - 17.03.2023).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
12
K
17
E200
17
R
32
I
6
EKRE
17
Majority requires 51 seats
Reformierakond + E200 + EKRE
Reformierakond + E200 + Keskerakond
Reformierakond + E200 + SDE
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
Reformierakond + E200 + Isamaa
Reformierakond + EKRE + Isamaa
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Isamaa
E200 + Keskerakond + SDE + Isamaa
Reformierakond + SDE + Isamaa
Reformierakond + EKRE
49
Reformierakond + Keskerakond
49

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 09.03.2023 and 17.03.2023 among 1586 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reformierakond 29.3%, E200 16.3%, EKRE 15.7%, Keskerakond 15.4%, SDE 11.6%, Isamaa 5.9%, Parempoolsed 2.9%, Elurikkuse Erakond 1.6% and EÜVP 1.5%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.