Estonia
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Elections

Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 17.05.2023

Polling data

R
22.7
-0.5
EKRE
22.5
+6.0
K
17.6
+1.1
E200
12.6
-3.9
SDE
10.4
-1.7
I
8.0
+1.4
P
2.7
-1.5
ER
2.4
-0.8
EÜVP
1.2
+0.2
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-8.5
EKRE
+6.4
K
+2.3
E200
-0.7
SDE
+1.1
I
-0.2
P
+0.4
ER
EÜVP
Kantar Emor – 1501 respondents – 10.05.2023-17.05.2023
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates E200 higher
In 67% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Kesk lower
In 59% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Kesk lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Ref lower
In 34% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Ref lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates SDE higher
In 56% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Ref 22.7%, EKRE 22.5%, Kesk 17.6%, E200 12.6%, SDE 10.4%, Isamaa 8%, Parempoolsed 2.7%, Elurikkuse Erakond 2.4% and EÜVP 1.2%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, EKRE might gain the most in voter favorability with +6.4 growth since the last election. Ref, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-8.5) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Ref, SDE and Isamaa. With 43.8% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1501 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (10.05.2023 - 17.05.2023).

Coalition possibilities

Ref + EKRE + E200
61.6
Ref + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
57.2
Ref + EKRE + Isamaa
56.7
Ref + Kesk + E200
56.4
Ref + Kesk + SDE
54.1
Kesk + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
51.8
Ref + Kesk + Isamaa
51.5
Ref + EKRE
48.2

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 10.05.2023 and 17.05.2023 among 1501 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Ref 22.7%, EKRE 22.5%, Kesk 17.6%, E200 12.6%, SDE 10.4%, Isamaa 8%, Parempoolsed 2.7%, Elurikkuse Erakond 2.4% and EÜVP 1.2%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.

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