Estonia
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Elections

Estonia: Poll by Norstat from 22.05.2023

Polling data

R
25.1
+1.8
EKRE
24.5
-2.5
K
17.0
-3.1
E200
10.6
+1.8
SDE
9.7
+1.8
I
8.1
+0.3
P
2.3
+0.3
ER
2.1
+0.4
Others
0.6
0.0
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-6.1
EKRE
+8.4
K
+1.7
E200
-2.7
SDE
+0.4
I
-0.1
P
±0.0
ER
Norstat – 1000 respondents – 15.05.2023-22.05.2023
Next election: 2027
The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.
Institute often rates E200 lower
In 52% of election polls Norstat rates E200 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Kesk higher
In 34% of election polls, Norstat rates Kesk higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Institute often rates Ref higher
In 54% of election polls, Norstat rates Ref higher than the general election trend of all institutes.
Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Norstat shows the following results: Ref 25.1%, EKRE 24.5%, Kesk 17%, E200 10.6%, SDE 9.7%, Isamaa 8.1%, Parempoolsed 2.3% and Elurikkuse Erakond 2.1%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, EKRE might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.4 growth since the last election. Ref, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-6.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Ref, SDE and Isamaa. With 45.1% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Norstat. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 7 days (15.05.2023 - 22.05.2023).

Coalition possibilities

Ref + E200 + SDE + Isamaa
56.3
Ref + Kesk + E200
55.5
Ref + Kesk + SDE
54.5
Ref + Kesk + Isamaa
52.8
Ref + EKRE
52.2
Ref + SDE + Isamaa
45.1

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results
This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Norstat. The survey took place between 15.05.2023 and 22.05.2023 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Ref 25.1%, EKRE 24.5%, Kesk 17%, E200 10.6%, SDE 9.7%, Isamaa 8.1%, Parempoolsed 2.3% and Elurikkuse Erakond 2.1%.
How reliable are election polls?
Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the survey method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.
What should you look out for in election polls?
Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.

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