Estonia
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Estonia: Poll by Norstat from 04.09.2023

Polling data

R
25.2
-2.0
EKRE
25.2
+2.7
K
16.8
+0.2
I
13.3
+2.1
SDE
8.6
-1.9
E200
6.2
-1.4
EER
2.8
+1.8
P
1.4
-1.3
Sonst.
0.5
-0.2
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
R
-6.0
EKRE
+9.1
K
+1.5
I
+5.1
SDE
-0.7
E200
-7.1
EER
+1.8
P
-0.9
Norstat – 1000 respondents – 29.08.2023-04.09.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary election in Estonia from Norstat shows the following results: Reformierakond 25.2%, EKRE 25.2%, Keskerakond 16.8%, Isamaa 13.3%, SDE 8.6%, E200 6.2%, EER 2.8% and Parempoolsed 1.4%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, EKRE might gain the most in voter favorability with +9.1 growth since the last election. E200, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-7.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 49.4% of virtual seats, the government could fail to remain in office.

The election survey was collected by Norstat. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (29.08.2023 - 04.09.2023).

Coalition possibilities

101
SDE
9
K
18
E200
6
R
27
I
14
EKRE
27
Majority requires 51 seats
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + Isamaa
59
Reformierakond + Isamaa + SDE + E200
56
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
54
Reformierakond + EKRE
54
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + E200
51
Reformierakond + Isamaa + SDE
50

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Norstat. The survey took place between 29.08.2023 and 04.09.2023 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Reformierakond 25.2%, EKRE 25.2%, Keskerakond 16.8%, Isamaa 13.3%, SDE 8.6%, E200 6.2%, EER 2.8% and Parempoolsed 1.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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