Estonia: Poll by Norstat from 09.10.2023

Estonia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
EKRE
24.0
+2.2
R
20.4
-2.8
I
17.0
-1.0
K
15.1
+0.7
SDE
10.9
+0.7
E200
6.2
-0.6
P
3.4
+0.2
EER
1.8
+0.1
Others
1.2
+0.5
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
EKRE
+7.9
R
-10.8
I
+8.8
K
-0.2
SDE
+1.6
E200
-7.1
P
+1.1
EER
+0.8
Norstat – 1000 respondents – 03.10.2023-09.10.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 lower

In 38% of election polls Norstat rates E200 lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates EKRE higher

In 30% of election polls, Norstat rates EKRE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond higher

In 31% of election polls, Norstat rates Keskerakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond higher

In 47% of election polls, Norstat rates Reformierakond higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE lower

In 30% of election polls Norstat rates SDE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from Norstat shows the following results: EKRE 24%, Reformierakond 20.4%, Isamaa 17%, Keskerakond 15.1%, SDE 10.9%, E200 6.2%, Parempoolsed 3.4% and EER 1.8%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +8.8 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-10.8) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 52.5% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Norstat. For this purpose, 1000 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (03.10.2023 - 09.10.2023).

Coalition possibilities

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
12
11.9%
K
16
15.8%
E200
6
5.9%
R
22
21.8%
I
19
18.8%
EKRE
26
25.7%
EKRE + Reformierakond + Isamaa
66.3%
Reformierakond + Isamaa + Keskerakond
56.4%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE + E200
55.4%
EKRE + Reformierakond + E200
53.5%
Reformierakond + Isamaa + SDE
52.5%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE + E200
52.5%
EKRE + Isamaa + E200
50.5%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE
49.5%
EKRE + Reformierakond
47.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Norstat. The survey took place between 03.10.2023 and 09.10.2023 among 1000 eligible voters. After this election poll would get EKRE 24%, Reformierakond 20.4%, Isamaa 17%, Keskerakond 15.1%, SDE 10.9%, E200 6.2%, Parempoolsed 3.4% and EER 1.8%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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