Estonia: Poll by Kantar Emor from 22.11.2023

Estonia: Polling data

This poll is more than 3 months old.
I
24.8
+6.3
EKRE
20.6
+3.2
R
16.1
-3.6
K
13.4
-0.9
SDE
12.9
-1.9
E200
6.3
-0.9
P
3.3
-0.8
EER
2.1
-0.7
EÜVP
0.4
-0.8
Others
0.1
+0.1
Development since the last election on 05.03.2023
I
+16.6
EKRE
+4.5
R
-15.1
K
-1.9
SDE
+3.6
E200
-7.0
P
+1.0
EER
+1.1
EÜVP
New
Kantar Emor – 1494 respondents – 16.11.2023-22.11.2023

Next election: 2027

The next parliamentary election in Estonia is expected to take place in 2027.

Institute often rates E200 higher

In 50% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates E200 higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates EKRE lower

In 32% of election polls Kantar Emor rates EKRE lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Keskerakond lower

In 43% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Keskerakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates Reformierakond lower

In 34% of election polls Kantar Emor rates Reformierakond lower than the general election trend of all institutes.

Institute often rates SDE higher

In 51% of election polls, Kantar Emor rates SDE higher than the general election trend of all institutes.

Election poll results

Estonia - The latest poll for the Parliamentary Election in Estonia from Kantar Emor shows the following results: Isamaa 24.8%, EKRE 20.6%, Reformierakond 16.1%, Keskerakond 13.4%, SDE 12.9%, E200 6.3%, Parempoolsed 3.3%, EER 2.1% and EÜVP 0.4%. If an election were held in Estonia this Sunday, Isamaa might gain the most in voter favorability with +16.6 growth since the last election. Reformierakond, on the other hand, would lose the most votes (-15.1) in the election barometer compared to the last election result.

Kaja Kallas is currently governing with a Coalition of the center from Reformierakond, SDE and Isamaa. With 57.4% of virtual seats, the government could continue in office.

The election survey was collected by Kantar Emor. For this purpose, 1494 persons were asked about their party preference in a period of 6 days (16.11.2023 - 22.11.2023).

Coalition possibilities

101
Majority requires 51 seats
SDE
14
13.9%
K
14
13.9%
E200
7
6.9%
R
17
16.8%
I
27
26.7%
EKRE
22
21.8%
Isamaa + EKRE + Reformierakond
65.3%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + Keskerakond
57.4%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + SDE
57.4%
Isamaa + EKRE + E200
55.4%
Isamaa + Keskerakond + SDE
54.5%
Reformierakond + Keskerakond + SDE + E200
51.5%
Isamaa + Reformierakond + E200
50.5%

Frequently asked questions about election polls

Election poll results

This election poll on the parliamentary election in Estonia was conducted by Kantar Emor. The survey took place between 16.11.2023 and 22.11.2023 among 1494 eligible voters. After this election poll would get Isamaa 24.8%, EKRE 20.6%, Reformierakond 16.1%, Keskerakond 13.4%, SDE 12.9%, E200 6.3%, Parempoolsed 3.3%, EER 2.1% and EÜVP 0.4%.

How reliable are election polls?

Election polls depict the current political mood and are not a forecast for the next upcoming election. Due to the polling method, the margin of error of each party's score is 1.5 to 3 percentage points, depending on the level of the score. For this reason, many polling institutes do not mention minor parties until values of around 3 percent are reached, as it is difficult to make serious statements below this level.

What should you look out for in election polls?

Pay attention to a sufficiently large sample size in polls. This should be at least 1000 respondents. Also pay attention to which institute is conducting the poll and who the clients are. Some institutes tend to rate certain parties too high or too low.
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